Upstate reference prices were up to 43% higher this March compared to a year ago, narrowing the gap with New York City. Capacity prices drove most of the convergence: upstate RCPs (Reference Capacity Prices) rose $10/MW-day year-over-year (150%) while NYC's RCP fell nearly $5/MW-day (11%). REAP (Reference Energy Arbitrage Price) was a secondary factor, with day-ahead spreads largely flat or modestly higher across zones.

The spread between the cheapest upstate zone (West, $41/MW-day) and NYC ($73) narrowed from $42 last March to $32.

Key takeaways

• Upstate reference prices rose 29-43% year-over-year, converging toward NYC. NYC fell 1.7% to $72.70.
• The RCP component drove reference price convergence. NYC's RCP fell 11% as its UCAP price declined 23%.
• REAPs were largely flat, but real-time spreads rose sharply, led by Capital at $267/MW-day (+34% YoY). Batteries capturing RT volatility outperformed the day-ahead-based REAP.
• ​Nine Mile Point 2 went offline March 9, cutting nuclear output 22%. Gas generation rose 29% to fill the gap, steepening the marginal cost curve.
• A week 3 cold snap reversed a warm stretch, with highs dropping 14°F below March 2025 levels. RT prices spiked above $250/MWh on several evenings during peak hours.

RCP drove the reference price convergence

NYC's UCAP spot price fell 23% YoY to $6.24/kW-month, while every other capacity zone rose 111% YoY to $2.64/kW-month. This added $10/MW-day to upstate RCPs while pulling NYC's down by nearly $5/MW-day, although NYC's RCP still remains more than double the rest of the state.

Higher CAFs set by NYISO for the 2025/26 capability year amplified the non-NYC gains. Upstate CAFs increased from 67% to 79%, and Long Island's rose from 79% to 87%. Long Island's RCP reached $18.54/MW-day, above all upstate zones ($16.80) despite sharing the same UCAP price.

REAP held steady, but real-time spreads surged

REAPs were largely flat year-over-year as day-ahead spreads held steady.

Real-time was a different story. RT TB4 spreads rose across every zone. Capital led at $267/MW-day, up 34% from $199/MW-day in March 2025. NYC followed at $251/MW-day (+35%), and Central at $232/MW-day (+26%). Statewide, the RT TB4 spread averaged $182/MW-day versus $120/MW-day in the day-ahead, a 52% premium.

Since REAP uses day-ahead spreads, batteries capturing real-time volatility systematically outperformed the Reference Price.

The hourly price shape shows what drove the RT premium. Evening ramps in 2026 were sharper than 2025, with prices consistently above prior-year levels from hour 17 onward. Morning prices were comparable.

Tighter system conditions kept spreads elevated despite the post-storm trend

Both REAP and RT spreads trended down from January's peak. The downward trend reflects the fading impact of winter load. Yet March's RT spreads stayed elevated year-over-year, pointing to supply-side tightness.

Nine Mile Point Unit 2 went offline March 9 for a scheduled refueling outage, removing approximately 1.3 GW of nuclear capacity. Average nuclear output fell 22% year-over-year. Gas generation rose 29% to fill the gap, and dual fuel rose 6%. These technologies have higher marginal costs than nuclear, steepening the supply curve and pushing prices higher even on mild days.

March spreads were also weather-dependent. Week 1 was cold (highs averaging 42°F), and prices opened elevated. Week 2 warmed to 57°F highs, and prices eased. Then week 3 reversed sharply, with highs dropping to 46°F and lows hitting 29°F, 14°F colder than the same week in 2025. Volatility spiked on several evenings during peak hours (HE17-HE20), amplified by the costlier generation mix from the nuclear outage.

By month-end, temperatures warmed again and both DA and RT prices settled into a narrow spring range.

Ancillary services added untracked upside

​Ancillary service markets provide revenue potential on top of the reference price. Batteries that stack AS revenues capture value that neither RCP nor REAP reflect.

Ancillary service prices followed the same trajectory as energy prices. Regulation capacity averaged $18/MWh in real-time, roughly double March 2025 levels, reflecting the higher opportunity cost of holding reserves when energy prices are elevated. As energy prices eased toward month-end, AS prices declined in step.

Nodal premiums offered further upside

​Like ancillary services, nodal prices sit outside the reference price calculation. Batteries at premium nodes captured additional value above their zonal REAP.

Capital zone nodes led the ISC nodal advantage map in March. The top-performing nodes exceeded $7/MW-day above the Capital zonal reference of $50.30.

Republic 115kV (Bartonbrook) posted the highest premium at $7.80/MW-day, followed by Lachute Hydro ($7.61) and IP Ticonderoga ($7.48). These nodes sit along the upper Hudson Valley and Adirondack corridor, where transmission constraints push locational prices above zonal averages.

For BESS developers evaluating ISC project siting, the Capital and upper Hudson Valley corridor offered the strongest nodal premiums in March, adding roughly 15% to the zonal reference price.