​Modo Energy's April 2026 release is out. The new release cuts German BESS lifetime revenues for a 2h asset by around 25%, with most of the change concentrated from 2028 onwards. A renewed intraday continuous methodology drives the bulk of the reduction, partially offset by slower ancillary service saturation. Day-ahead spreads hardly move. A new low scenario and updated EV logic reshape the longer-term picture.

Key takeaways

• Forecast revenues for a 2h-BESS drop by about 25%, mostly from 2028 onwards, driven primarily by a new intraday saturation method.
• The intraday methodology cuts intraday volatility by 3x, and volatility compresses further as more BESS comes online.
• TB2 day-ahead spreads stay within 2% of the January release at around €76k/MW/yr over the next 15 years, as changes in buildout and EVs counteract the impact of commodity price changes.
• BESS buildout in 2030 falls to 15.4 GW (from 18.7 GW), and 2050 buildout to 57.4 GW (from 63.7 GW), pulled down by EV competition and slower FID.
• A new low scenario reduces revenues by 10-15% in the longer term on lower gas and carbon price assumptions.

EV competition reduces battery buildout in the longer term

The Capacity Expansion Mechanism now factors in more competition from EVs in energy shifting, which reduces BESS buildout in the longer term. Buildout in 2050 falls to 57.4 GW, down from 63.7 GW in the January release.

Near-term assumptions have been revised down to reflect average project delays and an updated project pipeline, as FID progress has slowed in recent months due to grid fee uncertainty. Installed utility-scale BESS in 2030 is now 15.4 GW, down from 18.7 GW.

Forecast revenues are adjusted down by about 25%

Lifetime revenues drop by 25% across the curve, with the largest reductions from 2028 onwards. A new intraday saturation method drives most of the change. Slower ancillary service saturation only partially offsets the reduction.