​Modo Energy's October 2026 release is out for German solar and wind. Near-term solar capture prices rise by 18% on higher gas prices, while wind capture prices fall slightly because of lower baseload prices in the 2040s.

Solar revenues also rise slightly based on a slower buildout path, which recent regulatory risks and changes make likely. But IRRs are still compressed, making it important to look at the uplift coming from colocated BESS, even “green” colocation which cannot charge from the grid.

Key takeaways

• Solar's near-term capture price rises 18% on higher gas prices, and a policy-driven slower buildout lifts revenues slightly, even as the uplift from green colocation shrinks.
• Wind's capture price falls as much as 22% through the 2030s and 2040s on lower demand-driven baseload prices, pulling wind asset revenue down from around €150k to €130k/MW/yr.
• A roughly halved electrolyser demand growth assumption eases system tightness, cutting average wholesale prices 23% by 2040 and nearly eliminating negative price hours.
• Green colocated BESS still pays far better paired with solar (€130,000-140,000/MW/yr) than wind (€75,000-90,000/MW/yr), and acts as a natural hedge, narrowing gas- and carbon-driven scenario swings from around 20% to 10-15%.

Market-based buildout for solar is corrected downwards as lower power demand and policy pressures update the picture

October's German solar build-out sits below July's across the whole curve. The near-term is revised down only slightly, fitting with growing market uncertainty, moves to phase out EEG subsidies earlier than previously planned, plans for generator grid fees, and a struggling solar sector in Germany.

The later forecast horizon shows further deviation from last quarter’s buildout. Lower system-wide power demand, covered below, reduces how much new solar the model needs to bring onto the system to stay balanced - and how much solar it can add before capture prices fall below investable levels.

Solar capture rates rise slightly as less solar is being built out and wholesale prices are lower

Capture rates and capture prices show different stories quarter-on-quarter. The solar capture price stays almost unchanged later in the forecast horizon, but jumps 18% to €36.47/MWh in 2027. This jump is mainly caused by higher gas and carbon prices compared to last quarter.

The capture rate barely moves in the same year, at 38.7% versus 38.3%. But later in the forecast horizon, capture rates for solar remain higher this quarter.