Gas repriced every European power market in August. Dutch TTF front-month settled at €72.44/MWh on 3 September, 79% above its 25 June low, and day-ahead averages rose by between 50% in Poland and 126% in France against August 2025.

Higher wholesale power prices lift solar capture prices, even when cannibalisation lowers the capture rate. But in hours where gas doesn’t set the price, gas prices are almost irrelevant. Capture rates are useful in defining cannibalisation, but capture prices are what solar actually earns.

In August, with lower solar generation than July, almost every country had days where gas still set the price during the midday. That helped improve solar capture rates and prices across the board. Spain is the exception, and the only market whose capture rate fell by more than five percentage points.

Key takeaways

• Spain is the only European market where solar earned less in August than a year earlier. Its capture price fell to €53.19/MWh while its day-ahead average rose 73%, because just €2.73/MWh of a €49.88/MWh increase reached the hours its solar fleet generates in.
• Gas-heavy markets kept most of the rally. Italy passed €56.95/MWh of a €69.78/MWh increase into midday hours and Great Britain €39.09/MWh of €49.00/MWh, with neither recording a single negative hour in August.
• Italian solar earned €150.17/MWh, the most of any market in any month for two years, on the most gas-dependent system in the group.
• Germany's annual capture rate has risen from 50.7% to 57.5%, the only sustained improvement in the set. Tighter subsidy rules on negative hours and stronger summer demand are doing more for it than capacity restraint.
• Spain crossed its full-year 2025 negative-hour total on 22 May and now sits 242 hours beyond it, with four months still to run.

Solar capture prices rise in August across Europe - apart from Spain

Capture prices are the metric that shows what solar would have earned. They are a combined measure of solar cannibalisation dynamics and the market as a whole.

In August, solar capture prices rose across all of Europe apart from Spain, mostly on the back of higher gas prices. The clearest jump happened in Italy: Italian solar earned €150.17/MWh in August, higher than any month over the last two years. The Italian power system is the most gas-heavy of the block, so higher gas prices have the most impact.

But while monthly capture prices show gas price movements more directly, annual capture prices are the number that funds projects.

Only Italy, Great Britain and Poland hold rolling capture prices above €70/MWh. Higher gas prices generally this year compared to last have improved annual solar capture prices in every country apart from Spain. Spain's trailing 12-month capture price sits at €34.85/MWh, below last year’s €35.76/MWh, as the less gas-dominated system feels the impact of higher gas prices less strongly.

The story underlying all of the capture price increases is the gas price. Across August, the price rose another 24% to almost €70/MWh, on the back of renewed fighting in Iran and storage fill level concerns in Europe.

The market seems to price in state intervention to fill gas storage more and more, driving up prices in the autumn rather than the winter. The higher gas prices in summer rather than winter are giving solar capture prices a boost - more than if gas prices spiked in winter, if states decide to leave gas storage emptier.

In many countries, higher gas prices boosted even midday prices

Gas prices only matter for time periods where gas or other thermal units set the price. When solar sets the price, even higher gas prices cannot stop cannibalisation.

But the daily shape shows the impact on average prices across the month. In July and August, prices did not fall to zero on some days, meaning that gas still set the price during midday hours on those few days.