​NYISO's battery opportunity builds slowly, peaks late, and stays stable. TB4 spreads start at $50k/MW-year, dip to $39k/MW-year by 2030, recover to $55k/MW-year by 2041, and hold above $50k/MW-year through 2049. The underlying wholesale prices follow a similar shape: Around the clock (ATC) prices dip from $38.5/MWh to $33/MWh by 2028, climb to $49/MWh by 2041, and settle at $37/MWh.

Annual demand grows 55% over the forecast horizon, with peak demand rising from 28.5 GW to 44.6 GW. The system stays gas-heavy throughout, with natural gas rising from 42% to 53% of total supply.

Upstate zones offer the widest arbitrage spreads, driven by sharper midday price troughs from behind-the-meter solar. Downstate, New York City offers the highest capacity prices, reflecting persistent transmission constraints that keep the zone tight.

Key takeaways

• After the interconnection queue clears around 2030, Modo Energy's expansion model mainly builds gas for the next decade. No new front-of-meter solar or battery capacity appears until the early 2040s, when rising prices finally make a second wave economic.
• New transmission, including CHPE, supports net imports of 29 TWh by the late 2030s. Imports then collapse to 4 TWh by 2049 as local supply absorbs demand.
• The system becomes winter peaking in the late 2030s,, creating a second earning season for batteries without eroding the summer opportunity. Modo Energy's NYISO demand article covers this shift in detail.
• Average TB4 spreads range from $39k-$55k/MW-year through 2049. Battery owners see steady returns across the full forecast horizon.
• Western zones (A and B) reach $77k/MW-year TB4 by 2041, nearly double NYC's $41k/MW-year. However, NYC capacity prices hit $62/kW-month, creating a second revenue stream that can overshadow arbitrage shortfalls.

Gas dominates new supply as renewables stall through the 2030s

Annual natural gas generation nearly doubles from 59 TWh to 114 TWh. Its share of total supply rises from 42% to 53%. Gas capacity factors also climb from 26% to 42% as plants run more often to meet growing demand.

Nuclear (25 TWh) and hydro (26 TWh) hold flat throughout the forecast.

Solar grows from 2.0 to 14.8 TWh and wind from 8.8 to 32.0 TWh. Combined, they reach 22% of supply by 2049. Nevertheless, renewables remain a minority of the generation stack throughout the forecast.

After the current interconnection queue clears around 2030, Modo Energy's expansion model favors gas as the primary new-build technology.. No front-of-meter solar appears until 2040. Battery capacity also stalls at 5.6 GW until the early 2040s, when a second wave lifts it to 7.4 GW.

Net imports into NYISO also rise to nearly 29 TWh by the late 2030s as CHPE brings Canadian hydropower into downstate New York. From there, imports fall steadily to 4 TWh by 2049 as rising local demand is met by new domestic capacity instead.

As a result of this generation mix, gas sets both the peak and trough price in most zones on the majority of days. The arbitrage opportunity for batteries therefore depends on when gas runs hardest and when behind-the-meter solar suppresses midday demand.

Prices follow a long hump as supply lags demand, then catches up

ATC prices dip from $38.5/MWh in 2026 to $33/MWh in 2028, climb to $49/MWh by 2041, then settle at $37/MWh. The system never hits an acute supply crunch because gas, the cheapest source of firm dispatchable capacity in the model, keeps building alongside demand to meet near-term reliability needs.

The post-2041 decline coincides with supply catching up. Renewable capacity grows roughly 50% between 2041 and 2049 as solar and wind scale. Gas capacity rises 30% to meet winter peaks, adding headroom. Meanwhile, demand growth slows from about 3% per year to under 2%.

Zone J (NYC) carries a persistent and growing premium over upstate zones. The spread between NYC and Zones A/B widens from under $1/MWh in 2026 to $17/MWh by 2049, as transmission constraints keep downstate prices elevated while upstate prices decline roughly 17% over the forecast.

Midday prices fall while overnight prices rise, peaking in the early 2040s

The hourly price shape steepens as electrification shifts load into evening and overnight hours. In 2026, the year-round TB1 spread is roughly $31/MWh. By 2040, it widens to $37/MWh as overnight prices reach $63/MWh while the midday trough holds near $26/MWh.

After 2040, both the overnight ceiling and midday floor decline as new supply enters the market. The spread narrows slightly but remains above $30/MWh through 2049, preserving the core arbitrage window even as absolute price levels fall.

The seasonal profiles tell different stories. Winter profiles are steeper and higher throughout the forecast, with overnight prices above $100/MWh by 2040. In contrast, summer profiles show the deepest midday troughs as behind-the-meter solar suppresses afternoon demand. By the late 2040s, summer midday prices fall below $11/MWh in some years.

Modo Energy's demand article details how building electrification and EV charging combine to create a 9-hour winter discharge window by 2050. The price profiles above reflect that structural shift in load shape.

TB4 spreads stay stable, ranging from $39k to $55k/MW-year through 2049

Wholesale price movements drive TB4 spreads. This is the core arbitrage revenue a battery in NYISO captures.

NYISO-wide TB4 follows a shallow U-shape: $50k/MW-year in 2026, dipping to $39k in 2030, recovering to $55k by 2041, and holding at $51k through 2049.

Zonal differences are large. Zones A and B climb to $77k/MW-year by 2041, driven by wide solar-driven daily spreads, before easing to $61k/MW-year. Zone J stays flatter, recovering only to $41k/MW-year by 2041. Gas sets both peak and trough in NYC, producing less midday compression.

For context, NYISO-wide TB4 averaged $34k/MW-year over 2019-2024, ranging from $18k in 2020 to $66k in 2022. The forecast range of $39k-55k/MW-year sits consistently above the historical average.

NYC capacity prices reach $62/kW-month, but accreditation determines what batteries earn

Capacity prices add a distinct revenue layer. NYC leads at $20.7/kW-month in 2026, climbing to $62/kW-month by 2044, holding a nearly 5x premium over the other localities.

Long Island is the most volatile, swinging from under $2/kW-month to over $30/kW-month before converging with the other non-NYC zones in the 2040s.

However, headline capacity prices don’t represent what a battery actually earns . Capacity Accreditation Factors (CAFs) discount a resource's contribution based on duration and peak-hour availability. A 4-hour battery receives a CAF well below 1.0, so realized revenue is materially lower than the clearing price. Modo Energy's forecast includes duration-specific CAFs by zone and year for subscribers.

What does this mean for developers, investors, and lenders?

NYISO's investment case is not about timing a peak. TB4 spreads stay above $39k/MW-year for 24 years. The question is whether stacked revenues, arbitrage plus capacity plus any Index Storage Credit (ISC) contract, pencil after accounting for round-trip losses, degradation, and imperfect dispatch.

Geography splits the revenue mix. NYC offers the highest total revenue through capacity payments and ISC eligibility. Upstate zones offer wider TB4 spreads but depend more heavily on energy market performance.

Modo Energy's forecast covers all three revenue streams, alongside ancillary services, by zone and year. For a full walkthrough of how these assumptions translate into project-level returns, reach out to aaron@modoenergy.com.