European solar: Capture rates recover year-on-year in Q2 2026
Solar cannibalisation is a permanent feature of any market with meaningful solar capacity, not a one-off event. As more solar is added to a grid, it earns progressively less for the hours it generates, and solar capture rates fall. That dynamic tends to get worse as capacity keeps growing.
That has held true across most of Europe in recent years, with capture rates closing in on 50% of the baseload wholesale price in some regions. This summer, though, the trend eased in several markets, with less time spent at negative prices than a year earlier.
This summer came up with a twist: solar capture rates improved year-on-year in some countries, as heatwave conditions and sharper evening price spikes lifted capture economics even while midday cannibalisation persisted. Other markets are only now starting to feel that pressure build, as inflexible generation runs up against a growing solar fleet.
Key takeaways
- Germany's Q2 2026 solar capture rate rose 10.2 percentage points year-on-year to 43.6% — the largest recovery in Europe — driven by a sharp June rebound from 30.2% in April to 59.4%. Most other markets improved too, though France and Poland saw continued year-on-year declines.
- Capture prices rose in every market from April to June: Germany's nearly tripled, from €21.66/MWh to €60.90/MWh, while Italy stayed the highest-value market at €108.64/MWh.
- Evening price spikes, not just weaker midday cannibalisation, drove Germany's recovery. The average evening peak climbed from €162/MWh in April to €258/MWh in June, including a €747/MWh spike during the 24 June heatwave.
- Spain's negative-price hours passed its full 2025 total before the end of June — 729.5 hours by 30 June 2026 against 598.2 for all of 2025. In Germany, Poland, and GB, this year showed fewer negative hours than at the same point last year.
Solar capture rates in Q2 recovered year-on-year in some European countries
Solar capture rates dropped in line with - or even above - seasonal expectations in spring. But in May and June, solar capture rates recovered slightly as cooling demand began to pick up in Mediterranean countries. In some countries, it was even higher than a year earlier. June especially showed higher capture rates than a year earlier, as extreme evening spikes improved solar earnings.
Germany saw the sharpest year-on-year uplift: its capture rate rose by 10.2 percentage points to an average of 43.6%, driven mostly by a sharp June rebound from 30.2% in April to 59.4%, well above the 31–35% range seen in Q2 2025. Spain improved too, up 3.7 points to 38.0%, and Great Britain edged up 1.2 points to 84.9%, both modest gains on an already-strong or already-weak base.
Italy and Great Britain remained the strongest performers throughout, at 76-86% and 79-92%, respectively, and both improved on a full-quarter average basis. But France and Poland are continuing their downward trend: Poland's Q2 average rate fell by 2.6 percentage points to 60.7%, and France's fell by 3.9 percentage points to 34.5%, as the growing solar buildout starts to collide with inflexible nuclear and coal generation.
In most countries, this recovery isn't enough to buck the long-term trend: the more solar added to the grid, the more it cannibalises its own value. Only Germany shows a clear uplift in the 12-month rolling average capture rate - partly a function of recent months carrying more weight as capacity keeps expanding.
Capture prices followed the same pattern, but the ranking barely moved
Capture prices rose across the board from April to June: Germany from €21.66 to €60.90/MWh, France from €3.33 to €38.83/MWh, and Poland from €32.36 to €73.91/MWh. Italy remained the highest-value market throughout, closing the quarter at €108.64/MWh - still more than double Germany's and more than three times France's.
Every market's capture price rose year-on-year in full-quarter averages, partly driven by higher gas prices. Germany's Q2 capture price was up 67.5%; even in France, where capture rates worsened, prices still rose 36.2% - a clear sign of the broader power-price effect.
Higher power prices bolster solar capture prices on the shoulders
Some of the recovery is simply a higher price environment, not less cannibalisation. Average day-ahead (whole-day) prices rose in nearly every market across Q2: Germany from €71.70/MWh in April to €102.54/MWh in June, Poland from €64.50 to €103.90/MWh, France from €32.60 to €62.10/MWh, Spain from €36.90 to €65.90/MWh. Only Great Britain dipped slightly, from €90.50/MWh in May to €85.10/MWh in June.
Higher power prices lift both solar capture prices and capture rates, but through different mechanisms. For prices, the logic is simple: a bigger base means a bigger absolute number, even at the same capture rate. That's why Poland's capture price rose even as its capture rate fell 2.6 points year-on-year.
Wholesale prices can also lift solar capture rates. Because prices are set non-linearly, the hours when solar doesn’t set the price are influenced by mechanisms beyond cannibalisation, which however still affect the capture rate. The hours either side of solar's peak output - the "shoulders" - can spike well above the average. When shoulder prices are high while overnight prices remain low, capture rates improve overall.
