Modo Energy's April 2026 GB forecast release for solar is out.

Solar capture rates are projected at 85% in 2026, falling to 58% by 2035. Capture prices fall in step over the same period. The key drivers are an accelerated near-term buildout from the latest Contract for Difference (CfD) rounds and lower solar CapEx. The removal of Carbon Price Support also lowers near-term wholesale prices.

Key takeaways

• GB solar capacity reaches 36 GW by 2030 and plateaus at 92 GW from 2051, as falling capture prices erode the incentive to keep building beyond that level.
• Rapid near-term deployment drives solar cannibalisation. Capture rates fall from 85% in 2026 to around 58% after 2035 as more solar chases the same load.
• Near-term wholesale prices reflect falling UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) carbon prices and the removal of Carbon Price Support (CPS) from April 2028.
• The April-26 low scenario cuts solar capture prices to £33/MWh by 2040, around 20% below the central.

Near-term solar buildout rises sharply, but the long-term ceiling falls

GB solar capacity grows from 23 GW in 2026 to 53 GW in 2035. Across Europe, solar continues to be built at pace. Germany hits 175 GW and Spain 57 GW by 2030.

The GB forecast incorporates the latest CfD rounds, adjusted to reflect connections reform. We expect to hit 36 GW by 2030, against the Clean Power 2030 target of 45-47 GW.

Long-term, capacity plateaus at 92 GW from 2051. Cannibalisation deepens through the 2030s. By 2050 we see no new build sites despite falling CapEx.

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Lower modelled solar CapEx, based on new inputs from the IRENA 2024 dataset, averaging €660/kW across 2026-35, is a key driver of buildout in European solar markets.