​Modo Energy's Forecast April 2026 release is out. Our Capacity Expansion Model projects no new utility-scale solar in Spain through 2033, as capture prices fall to €18/MWh in 2026. A new low scenario takes capture prices a further 15% lower over the long term.

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Key takeaways

• ​Spain's installed solar PV capacity for 2026 is now 54 GW, an 11 GW upward revision after Red Eléctrica de España (REE) updated historical figures for utility-scale and rooftop solar.
• Solar capture prices fall to €16/MWh in 2027, staying below €30/MWh through 2030.
• Our Capacity Expansion Model adds no new utility-scale solar for seven years from 2027, with installed capacity flat at around 57 GW.
• By 2050, the Apr-26 forecast reaches 89 GW, 21 GW below the January release.
• A new low scenario reduces long-term capture prices to a €27-30/MWh range, on lower gas and carbon price assumptions.

Solar overbuild in Apr-26 is captured better than in the Jan-26 release

We've updated our model's starting point for Spanish solar PV with revised data from REE. The new dataset shows 54 GW of installed capacity across utility-scale and rooftop solar in 2026, up from the 43 GW used in the January release. That sets the starting point for our new simulations.

Despite the higher starting point, the long-term trajectory falls. By 2050, the Apr-26 forecast reaches 89 GW. Spain's solar fleet does not pass 100 GW within the forecast horizon, a milestone the January release projected by the late 2040s.

​Lower capture prices drive the divergence. The entire gap opens between 2027 and the mid-2030s.

Why does the model halt new solar buildout until 2033?

​Spain's solar profile captures very little value in the forecast's early years. The unclipped capture price falls to a trough of €16/MWh in 2027 and stays below €30/MWh through 2030.