​Dutch aFRR (automatic frequency restoration reserve) sends two opposite price signals. The capacity market is saturated: availability that paid €105/MW/h in 2022 pays €27/MW/h in 2026, after four straight years of falls. The energy market is here to stay: activated volumes set a record in 2025, and providers offer more every year.

For batteries, the aFRR energy market offers a spread that no other Dutch market does. On summer days, solar sets the day-ahead price near zero while gas still sets the upward aFRR energy price. At 14:00 on the summer 2026 average, that is paying generators €13/MWh against €104/MWh: a €91/MWh difference.

Key takeaways

• ​aFRR capacity prices have bottomed out. Supply into the auction continues to rise, while TenneT procures less. The saturation runs both ways.
• ​The aFRR energy market is growing. A much larger domestic market, coupled with Europe, drove a record 942 GWh of activation in 2025. A deeper aFRR merit order gives a battery more options to bid, so it can position for both state of charge and price.
• ​aFRR energy adds income on top of the day-ahead spread and requires fewer cycles to capture.

How does one midday hour pay a battery three times?

Solar output peaks in summer, taking the Dutch day-ahead price down with it. Midday prices fall to a floor, and gas drops out of the merit order (the pattern behind the wide Dutch day-ahead spreads covered in Modo's analysis of Dutch buildout, spreads and grid charges).

As the generation mix is almost entirely renewable and running at maximum output, upward flexibility is limited. Gas-fired plants and batteries can both still provide upward flexibility. A battery that discharges at midday gives up the evening peak, and gas sets the evening peak price. So gas continues to set the upward aFRR energy price, even though it has left the day-ahead market.