Will SPP double peak demand to 110 GW by 2035?
SPP’s current peak load stands at 56 GW, a record set in August 2023. Today, SPP is planning for a future where this peak could double to 110 GW by 2035.
Large load applications are raising forecasts provided by utilities. But true load growth will likely be lower than what system operators expect.
In this article, we break down SPP's current outlook on load growth along with its uncertainties. We also highlight emerging opportunities where project developers can support growing customer demand.
How much load growth does SPP forecast?
SPP’s latest forecast shows peak demand could reach 110 GW in 2035 - almost twice as high as the historical peak of 56 GW.
SPP builds its peak forecast from Load Responsible Entity (LRE) submissions. Each utility provides a 10-year peak-demand projection, including confirmed ‘firm’ loads and speculative ‘spot’ loads.
What are ‘firm’ and ‘spot’ loads?
Firm loads are loads that have executed formal interconnection agreements with their local transmission operator. They're baked into the base reliability (BR) models and treated as committed demand that SPP must plan to serve. These show up in every future.
Spot loads are large load requests submitted via stakeholder surveys but have not yet completed the interconnection process. They were collected through a voluntary survey sent to transmission operators during the ITP scoping phase. In the 2025 ITP, spot loads appear in Future 2 as a resiliency condition; in the 2026 ITP, they're being folded into both futures.
These submissions feed into two planning scenarios.
- Future 1: the reference case. Existing agreements plus planned generation. Uses the base forecast as submitted.
- Future 2: Emerging technologies. Layers spot loads and higher EV adoption on top of the Future 1 base.
Total load projections depend on which future is used. In the latest 2025 Integrated Transmission Plan (ITP), base peak load in 2034 reaches 70 GW. Future 2 pushes the same horizon to approximately 83 GW.
Previews of the 2026 ITP go further: Future 1 reaches 91 GW by 2035, and Future 2 reaches 110 GW.
Just three years ago, growth rates in the 2023 ITP ranged from 0.5% to 2% annually. Since then, large loads requesting interconnection have pushed each successive forecast materially higher. The latest 2025 ITP Future 2 implies approximately 5% compound annual growth.
What is driving the growth in load?
Spot loads are the dominant source of incremental growth. Stakeholders submitted approximately 11 GW of new large loads during the 2025 ITP scoping process. In the 2026 ITP, this figure has jumped to 30 GW.
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