The July 2026 release improves the solar bidding methodology. Modelling tracker bid curves lifts the unclipped solar capture price by ~€6/MWh in 2028 versus the April 2026 release (Apr-26).

That comparison holds fixed-tilt structures constant across both versions. It also unlocks more solar buildout in the early years, and long-term capture prices now remain within a stable range.

Key takeaways

• The 2028 unclipped capture price rises ~€6/MWh versus Apr-26, comparing fixed-tilt structures across releases.
• Solar buildout accelerates: Jul-26 reaches ~89 GW installed by 2040, 18 GW more than Apr-26.
• Long-term capture prices stabilise at €25 to €30/MWh for tracker assets, rather than sinking early and rebounding as in Apr-26.

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Spain's solar fleet runs on trackers

Over the last few years, most utility-scale solar installed in Spain has used single-axis trackers. Trackers follow the sun throughout the day, which changes the production shape.

​The tracker holds a near-constant plateau through the central hours and keeps generating later into the evening. In short, the shape flattens: more energy at sunrise and sunset, less of a single peak.

Our previous releases modelled solar on a fixed-tilt production profile. That understates the output of today's tracker-heavy fleet at sunrise and sunset, when solar generation has the biggest impact on prices.-

How does the tracker bid curve change the price shape?

The Jul-26 release aligns the modelled solar profile with the generation observed in the day-ahead market. Solar offers in the model now follow the shape the market actually sees, producing an hourly price shape closer to historical wholesale prices.