​Modo Energy's October 2026 Poland battery forecast is live. The release adds two new revenue streams to the Polish model: 15-minute continuous intraday trading on TGE, the Polish power exchange, and manual frequency restoration reserve (mFRR) capacity.

With both streams and a new revenue calibration, an unconstrained 50 MW, 2-hour battery earns an average of €109k/MW/year over 2027–2050. A 4-hour battery earns €167k/MW/year. Those figures are 12% and 2% above the July release.

July's forecast applied no calibration, but it also left out intraday and mFRR, so its revenue already reflected the upside that October now captures. The October release therefore applies a 90% calibration to central scenario revenues, to account for perfect foresight in our modelling.

This update first covers the two new revenue lines, then the changes to Poland's generation mix and commodity prices.

Key takeaways

• Intraday grows from around PLN 5k/MW in 2027 to around a quarter of 2-hour revenue by 2040, as TGE's continuous market deepens.
• mFRR capacity adds PLN 363k/MW to a 2-hour battery in 2027. It saturates alongside automatic frequency restoration reserve (aFRR), so batteries earn two-thirds of its value by 2029.
• The fundamental changes reduce revenue in day-ahead, frequency containment reserve (FCR) and aFRR by 8% for a 2-hour battery and 7% for a 4-hour battery. Coal and lignite reach zero in 2040, and lower battery costs double the 4-hour fleet by then.
• The low case, built on cheaper gas and EU carbon, sits 17–18% below central over 2027–2050. The high case, built on dearer gas and carbon, sits 18–19% above.

2-hour revenue rises 12% in July, while 4-hour holds close

Battery revenue follows the same shape in both releases. It peaks in 2027, while reserve capacity still pays well, and then falls as the battery fleet saturates Poland's ancillary markets.

The October update lifts that curve in two places: mFRR adds revenue in the early years, and intraday adds more from the early 2030s. As a result, a 2-hour battery sits above July in almost every year.

The 4-hour battery gains less. Intraday adds a similar amount per MW to both durations, and that amount is a larger share of the 2-hour battery's smaller total. The 4-hour premium over a 2-hour battery therefore narrows, and 4-hour revenue ends 2% above July

Intraday and mFRR follow opposite paths

Intraday and mFRR capacity are the two markets our October release adds to the Polish battery revenue stack. Like other available ancillary markets, mFRR capacity prices saturate quickly as the battery fleet grows.

PSE, Poland's transmission system operator, pays mFRR providers an hourly availability fee for manual reserve. Providers must be able to deliver that reserve for two hours. The forecast leaves out mFRR activation energy, because PSE publishes no dedicated activation price series to model it against.

Intraday grows as TGE's continuous market deepens

We have been investigating how we expect the intraday market to grow in Poland. For October, we analysed how much volume TGE's continuous market trades today and how that volume could grow.

Today the market is thin, averaging 28.5 MW of traded volume per 15-minute slot in 2026. That depth grows through the forecast as more wind and solar from independent power producers (IPPs) connects. Their forecast errors leave more volume to rebalance close to delivery. PSE is also tightening how renewables balance their positions, which pushes more of that rebalancing into intraday, and new batteries add counterparties on the other side of those trades.