If historical pass rates and queue delays hold, and New York contracts its 3 GW target for bulk BESS, 13 GW of the capacity in the NYISO queue today would come online by the end of 2031. Solar reaches 4.7 GW and BESS 3.5 GW across 33 projects, with new builds peaking in 2029.

75% of the BESS is in Zones G to K, where the signed interconnection agreements and the Index Storage Credit (ISC) contracts are. The ISC program sets the BESS total. The Public Service Commission's 2024 order requires the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) to contract 3 GW of bulk BESS by the end of 2030. 950 MW is already contracted, and the forecast assumes the next 2.1 GW in line is awarded and built on time.

Key takeaways

• 3.5 GW of BESS is expected in NYISO by 2031, within 13 GW of new capacity across all fuels.
• 75% of the BESS is in downstate Zones G to K, 1.1 GW of it in New York City.
• 96% of the 4.7 GW of solar is upstate, most of it on legacy queue positions.
• The BESS forecast is driven by NYSERDA's 3 GW ISC target alongside 465 MW already under construction.
• A BESS in the Final Decision Period has a 13% historical chance of reaching operation without a contract, so the next two ISC solicitations, which set a revenue floor, decide which projects get built.

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3.5 GW of BESS additions are expected among 13 GW of new capacity in NYISO by 2031

BESS and solar make up 62% of the 13 GW forecast in NYISO through 2031. The rest is offshore and onshore wind, co-located solar and BESS, and 273 MW of natural gas.

New additions peak in 2029 at 4.5 GW, over half of it solar. BESS comes earlier: developers are expected to bring 84% of it online by 2029 and all of it by 2030. The 3.5 GW therefore sits in the upper half of the 2 GW to 4 GW range that Modo Energy's 2025 set for 2030.