On 14 October 2026, Italy's day-ahead market cleared below zero for the first time. The South, Calabria and Sicily zones all settled at -€0.01/MWh from 12:00 to 15:15, while the North cleared above €160/MWh.

​Southern wind output was almost three times its September average, but the south’s capacity to export electricity northwards had nearly halved. Local demand could not absorb the extra generation, and the reduced export capacity left a surplus in the south.

Negative prices should still remain rare, isolated events, as long as the south's export capacity stays at normal levels.

A lower export limit left the south with a surplus

Wind generation in the South was almost three times its September daily average, while export capacity was lower than usual. From 13 to 16 October, Terna, Italy's transmission system operator, cut the South to Centre-South transfer limit to 2,400 MW. The September median was 4,400 MW.

As a result, the three southern zones cleared at or below zero from 08:30 to 16:45.

​

The south already had a midday surplus

Zero-price hours in the South zone rose from 25 in January to early October 2025 to 150 over the same period in 2026. Day-ahead prices stayed at or above zero, but intraday prices fell below zero on 69 days from March 2025, reaching -€60/MWh.

Most of these intraday episodes followed a day-ahead price of €0. Local demand and exports were already absorbing the south’s available supply, leaving few buyers for additional output offered intraday.