Three things move solar revenues: solar irradiance shaped by seasons and weather, commodity prices and buildout. This autumn, all three are visible at once.

Seasonal changes explains the capture rate. Shorter days shrink the midday solar peak, so solar stops cannibalising its own price. Gas explains the capture price. TTF passed €100/MWh in late October, and that cost now sets the price in most hours solar sells into. Buildout explains the Netherlands, which joins the tracker this month with nearly as much solar relative to demand as Germany.

Key takeaways

• The autumn recovery is seasonal, not structural. In the most solar-heavy northern markets, capture rates have risen by around 20 percentage points between September and October for three years running.
• Gas, not solar, doubled what solar earned. Capture rates are close to last year's in most markets, so the jump in capture prices comes almost entirely from more expensive gas.
• Much of the Dutch solar fleet ignores price. A large share sits on rooftops under net metering, which is why Dutch prices fall so far, so often.
• Net metering ends on 1 January 2027. Spring 2027 will be the first test of whether Dutch rooftop owners start reacting to negative prices.

Capture rates rose across Europe in September and October

Capture rates rose in every market this autumn. The biggest moves came in the Netherlands, France and Germany, in the north of Europe, where seasonal variations in irradiance are highest.

Italy barely moved, but remained at the top of the pack as solar cannibalisation is still in its early stages. Spain recovered less than its northern neighbours because solar tracking and less seasonal variation at the southern latitude keep solar irradiance higher during the shoulder period.

Why do solar capture rates recover every autumn?

A capture rate measures how much solar earns relative to the average price. It falls when solar sets the price during the hours it generates.

In summer, . Prices collapse in exactly the hours solar sells. In autumn, the sun sits lower and days are shorter. Output peaks below midday demand, so gas and coal plants stay on through the middle of the day. Midday prices start to look like the rest of the day, and the capture rate climbs back towards 100%.