Italy's second MACSE auction runs on the 24th of November. Terna seeks up to 16 GWh of storage for delivery in 2029, with bids capped at €27,000/MWh-year.

Bids sit close to break-even, so the clearing price will come down to two things: what bids cost, and how much cheap capacity bids against Terna's demand. Both have moved since the first round.

We look at each in turn, then combine them in scenarios to show where round 2 could clear.

Key takeaways

• Competition pushes bids towards break-even: costs plus a target return. Break-evens range from about €13,900 for a brownfield utility to €27,000 for a greenfield project relying on MACSE alone.
• Bid costs have shifted. Each point on debt adds about €1,100 to a greenfield break-even, while a lower cap cuts penalty risk.
• Terna is seeking 60% more storage capacity than in last year's auction. To fill 16 GWh, the auction must reach further up the supply curve.
• Brownfield volume is the swing factor. Across our three scenarios, zonal marginal premiums range from €13,100 with plenty of brownfield and cheap debt to €24,600 with neither.

Competition pushes bids towards break-even

MACSE pays winners a fixed premium for 15 years, on a pay-as-bid basis. Each bidder needs a premium that covers its costs and earns its target return. Round 1 was highly competitive, so we expect bids to sit close to that break-even.

Break-evens vary widely. At 6% debt and an 11% equity return, a greenfield six-hour battery in South and Calabria needs €27,000 on MACSE alone. That is in line with the round 2 cap, which ARERA sets from the cost of a new battery.