​Modo Energy's Poland battery energy storage revenue forecast is live.

Poland's battery revenue stack is forecasted to change significantly over the next decade; shallow ancillary service markets mean near-term saturation is inevitable as GWs of batteries begin to connect.

A volatile day-ahead market driven by a fast-evolving generation mix, demand growth and low flexibility will keep spreads high, but are spreads alone able to sustain the growing battery fleet?

Key takeaways

• A four-hour battery earns €366,000/MW-year in 2027, falls to a €146,000 trough by 2030 as balancing saturates, then recovers toward €170,000 by the late 2030s as day-ahead spreads widen.
• Coal and lignite retire from 25 GW to zero by 2050; more than 75 GW of new solar, wind, gas, nuclear and batteries connect to replace them and meet demand growth from 172 to 228 TWh.
• Ancillary services provide around 80% of battery revenue in 2026 but under a tenth by 2030, as the fleet scales past 8 GW and the aFRR capacity price falls from €46 to €14 /MW/h.

Modo Energy’s Poland BESS Revenue forecast is live

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Peak load rises to 35 GW by 2050

Poland's winter peak demand rises from 25 GW today to 35 GW by 2050, and its summer peak from 22 GW to 31 GW. Annual consumption grows in step, from 172 TWh today to 228 TWh by 2050.

The growth is front-loaded and almost entirely due to electrification. PSE, the Polish TSO, attributes around 90% of the increase to electric vehicles, heat pumps and the electrification of heat. The near-term rate of 1.6% a year runs ahead of the 1.2% long-term average.

Poland targets gas as firm capacity to replace its ageing coal fleet

Coal and lignite make up 40% of Poland's installed capacity, around 25 GW. All of it retires by 2050, removing the baseload that has supported the Polish power system for decades. The retirements are front-loaded, with 6 GW coming offline between 2026 and 2030 alone - and gas, nuclear, and renewables step in to fill the gap they leave.

Gas is Poland's near-term bet. New CCGTs and OCGTs grow the gas fleet from 8 to 16 GW, supported by new floating LNG import terminals at Gdańsk (the FSRU 1 and 2 regasification units), and act as the transition fuel.

They will provide reliable winter baseload when solar output is low, and added flexibility across spring and summer. The first 3.5 GW of nuclear then arrives around 2040 to provide firm low-carbon generation.

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