​Four-hour BESS wholesale capacity prices in New York City rise from $248/kW-year in 2026 to $723/kW-year by 2049. But, BESS-specific revenue moves in the opposite direction.

Three forces drive the repricing: the reference unit switches from gas turbine to BESS, offshore wind additions raise local requirements as fast as they add supply, and thermal retirements erode winter reliability margins through the 2030s. Unforced Capacity (UCAP) clearing prices rise through the forecast horizon. BESS-specific revenue does not. The gap between headline prices and battery payments widens every year as accreditation factors degrade.

These projections are part of Modo Energy's BESS revenue forecast for NYISO, which models capacity, energy arbitrage, and ancillary service revenue streams through 2050.

Key takeaways

• Three structural forces reprice NYISO capacity simultaneously in 2026: a reference unit switch, offshore wind requirement changes, and thermal retirement decay.
• UCAP clearing prices rise through the capacity price forecast, but BESS revenue peaks early and declines. NYC four-hour revenue drops from $206/kW-year in 2026 to $108 by 2049 as Capacity Accreditation Factors (CAFs) compress with fleet penetration.
• The BESS reference unit window runs from 2026 through 2029. The Installed Capacity (ICAP) to UCAP translation amplifies clearing prices by 1.77 times in New York City versus 1.02 times under the gas turbine reference.
• Four-hour systems carry an 83% supply CAF compared to 58% for two-hour systems. Both decline as BESS penetration grows, curbing revenue even as headline capacity prices climb.

NYISO's capacity market already prices location over everything else

New York City capacity prices have cleared 250% above statewide levels since 2023. The premium is structural: load-serving entities in Zone J must procure 75.6% of forecasted peak load from local resources. Zone K (Long Island) must procure 107.3%. Neither zone can substitute cheaper upstate capacity.

Today, only 14 MW of BESS provides accredited winter UCAP across all of NYISO. The fleet is about to scale from near-zero to 4 GW by 2030. How that growth interacts with accreditation rules determines whether batteries capture the existing price premium or dilute it.

Three forces land simultaneously at the 2026-2027 capability year

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New York City's capacity requirement rises 410 MW in May 2026. The statewide requirement rises 784 MW. These step-ups reflect the New York State Reliability Council's (NYSRC) 2026-2027 Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) preliminary base case.

At the same time, the (CHPE) adds 1,250 MW of summer-only imports to Zone J from May through October 2026. The surplus accumulates over two capability years as the demand curve adjustment lags the supply addition, producing a price trough in the 2027-2028 capability year.