​Wind is now the NEM’s leading renewable energy source. It supplied 17% of generation in Q2 2026 and overtook hydro as the largest source of generation during the evening peak. But while wind is becoming more important to the power system, investment is stalling.

Wind capex has risen sharply, LGC value has dropped, and capture prices compete with more renewable generation and battery storage. A new wind farm now needs around $124/MWh of revenue to achieve an 8% IRR at today’s costs, compared with captured prices of just $34-70/MWh across the NEM states over the past year.

Modo Energy's Central forecast shows wind capture prices recovering from 2029 as thermal generation retires, while capex also falls.

But the recovery does not close the financing challenge. The next wave of NEM wind projects will need the right combination of siting, project design, contracting and policy support to reach financial close.

This article covers the current state of the wind market, what it is earning, and where Modo Energy's Central forecast and AEMO's 2026 ISP take the buildout from here.

Executive summary

• Wind build-out needs to accelerate, but investment is slowing. The NEM added 10 GW of wind over the last decade, but no new wind farm is reaching first generation in 2026.
• Wind capture prices range from $34/MWh in Victoria to $70/MWh in Queensland over the past year, below the $124/MWh needed to achieve an 8% hurdle rate at today's capex.
• The system needs more wind than the market currently supports. AEMO's 2026 ISP reaches 30 GW by 2030, while Modo Energy’s Central forecast reaches 17.6 GW.
• Thermal retirements lift wind capture prices from 2029, while declining capex improves project economics. Contracting and policy support will still be important to close the gap.
• Batteries can strengthen wind projects, but their role differs from solar. For wind, co-located storage is increasingly about flexibility rather than higher value hours.

Wind's investment is slowing when it needs to accelerate

The NEM's wind fleet has grown from 4 GW in 2016 to 14 GW today. Large projects including MacIntyre, Golden Plains East, Clarke Creek, Goyder South, and Wambo wind farms make up most of the recent build-out. These projects continue to commission further capacity in 2026, but no new wind farm is reaching first generation this year.