The 2026 Long Term Load Forecast for MISO projects annual energy demand rising 63%, from 678 TWh in 2026 to 1,104 TWh in 2046. That is a significant acceleration: the 2024 forecast projected peak demand growth of 1.6% per year, while the 2026 update raises it to 2.0%. The BESS value case that emerges is driven by capacity tightness and scarcity pricing, not by wider daily price spreads.

Two industrial drivers are responsible for more than 70% of that growth. Data centers expand from 9.6 TWh to 266 TWh of annual energy. Conventional manufacturing grows 26%, lifted by (projected) reshoring of manufacturing supply chains. Both run flat demand profiles and, therefore, t system that gets tighter without getting peakier. The load factor rises from roughly 63% to 68%, compressing supply margins without widening the daily demand shape.

Key takeaways

• MISO projects peak demand growing from 124 GW to 184 GW by 2046 under the current trajectory, with scenarios spanning 149 GW (low) to 232 GW (high).
• Data centers add 32 GW to coincident peak, more than all other drivers combined. Data center energy grows 28-fold to 266 TWh, reaching 24% of total MISO energy by 2046.
• MISO Central absorbs 58% of data center energy growth, concentrating grid stress in Wisconsin, Michigan, Missouri, and Indiana.
• The system load factor rises from 63% to 68% as high load factor customers grow fastest. Therefore, BESS revenue streams shift toward capacity payments and ancillary services.

Data centers add more peak demand than all other drivers combined

MISO's coincident peak demand grows from 124 GW to 184 GW by 2046 under the current trajectory. Data centers contribute 32 GW of that 60 GW increase, more than all other drivers combined. Conventional manufacturing adds roughly 10 GW, electric vehicles (EVs) contribute 8 GW, and residential and commercial demand grows by just 5 GW net.

The energy picture is equally concentrated. Large loads contribute 317 TWh of the 426 TWh in net energy growth, 74% of the total increase. Data centers alone expand from 9.6 TWh to 266 TWh, growing from under 2% of system energy to the second largest demand segment in MISO.

The remaining 30% of growth comes from EVs at 62 TWh, modest commercial gains, and essentially flat residential load. Emerging industries saw the most significant downward revision between the 2024 and 2026 forecasts. Green hydrogen has been substantially scaled back. The emerging industries category grows from just 1.9 GW to 3.8 GW. The muted growth of peakier demand segments reinforces the central point: MISO's demand curve is flattening, not steepening.

MISO energy demand grows 63%, led by two sectors

MISO's forecast tracks five demand drivers: data centers, conventional manufacturing, EVs, residential and commercial, and emerging industries. Under the current trajectory, total energy demand rises from 678 TWh to 1,104 TWh by 2046.

Manufacturing remains the single largest demand segment by energy through 2046, growing from 228 TWh to 288 TWh. Data centers close the gap rapidly, reaching 266 TWh. Both sectors run near-constant demand profiles. A single 1 GW hyperscale campus consumes as much electricity annually as roughly 750,000 average U.S. homes. This flat demand shape is what pushes the system load factor from 63% to 68%, compressing supply margins without widening the daily demand curve.

Three scenarios diverge, but growth in MISO is certain

The current trajectory's peak demand compound annual growth rate (CAGR) increased to 2.0% from 1.6% in the 2024 LTLF. This aligns with the high end of the 2024 range. Data center expansion is the primary driver: MISO now anticipates data center load at more than twice the level projected two years ago.

MISO publishes three trajectories. All share weather and energy efficiency assumptions but diverge on data center confidence tiers, economic growth, EV adoption, and industrial policy. Total energy demand in 2046 ranges from 885 TWh under the low trajectory to 1,404 TWh under the high. Even the low case adds 29 GW of peak demand and 222 TWh of energy, underscoring that the direction of demand growth is certain across all three scenarios.

If warming trends increase cooling peaks or polar vortex events become more frequent, the forecast may understate peak demand even under the current trajectory. For BESS, weather volatility creates scarcity pricing events that the load factor analysis does not capture. Rising baseload demand from data centers means even moderate weather events push the system closer to its limits.

How much load do data centers add to MISO?

Data center peak demand grows from 1.2 GW in 2026 to 20.5 GW by 2030 under the current trajectory. This is contingent on high and medium confidence projects advancing on schedule. By 2046, data centers reach 33.5 GW. Energy consumption rises from 9.6 TWh to 266 TWh, reaching 24% of total MISO energy.

The growth unfolds in three phases. From 2026 to 2030, MISO tracks individual high and medium confidence projects. This phase produces a compound annual growth rate of 103% in data center energy. From 2031 to 2035, growth moderates to roughly 6% annually as project pipelines mature. After 2035, growth tracks U.S. GDP at roughly 2% per year.

Hyperscale facilities dominate this growth. They operate at roughly 90% load factors, meaning nearly constant power draw around the clock. Enterprise data centers run closer to 75%, but represent a much smaller share of the pipeline. At 266 TWh from 33.5 GW of peak, data centers produce far more energy per unit of capacity than residential load, which draws 221 TWh from 49.7 GW of peak. This flat demand profile is what drives the load factor higher, strengthening the scarcity need for BESS rather than expanding arbitrage spreads.

​Where in MISO is data center load growth concentrated?

MISO Central's peak demand rises from 63 GW to 97 GW (54% growth), accounting for the majority of system-wide growth. Central's 34 GW of additions approaches the total current peak demand of MISO South. Central absorbs 58% of all data center energy growth by 2046. For BESS site selection, this concentration creates localized transmission constraints that can drive congestion and scarcity pricing in those corridors.

Three zones lead in peak demand growth. LRZ 2 (Wisconsin) grows 70%, LRZ 5 (Missouri) grows 69%, and LRZ 6 (Indiana) grows 60%. The concentration is not coincidental. These zones offer what hyperscale developers prioritize: land at scale, competitive wholesale prices, and state incentives.

​Data center concentration in LRZ 2, 5, and 6 could add a locational dimension. These zones will need to import more power as load grows, potentially widening LMP basis differentials. Winter Storm Fern demonstrated this in January 2025, when regional price divergence across MISO reached a factor of four. For storage near these load pockets, basis spreads may offer value beyond system-wide capacity payments.

What does a rising load factor mean for BESS?

​​MISO's system load factor rises from roughly 63% to 68% by the mid-2040s. Data centers at 90% utilization add 1.8 GW to average demand for every 2 GW of peak, compared to just 1.0 GW from residential load of equivalent peak. As flat-profile customers grow fastest, the demand curve shifts upward without steepening.

For BESS, this means arbitrage revenues grow more slowly than headline demand numbers suggest. Capacity paments and ancillary services becomes the more reliable revenue stream. The LTLF does not forecast supply, but MISO's own data points to tightening margins: system surplus fell from 6.5 GW to 2.6 GW across three planning years, the OMS-MISO 2025 survey projects deficits by 2027-28, and the summer PRA clearing price reached $666.50 /MW-day in 2025-26, up 22-fold over the prior year.