The PPE3 plan announced by Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu ends three years of regulatory uncertainty. For developers and investors, it provides a framework to build on.

Nuclear energy will remain the backbone of the system, while renewables are set to grow at a pace compatible with grid stability.

Key Points:

• Renewable targets have been revised downward. Solar drops from 54 to 48 GW, and onshore wind from 35 to 31 GW for 2030.
• Nuclear aims for 400 TWh in 2030, about 10% more than today, thanks to improved availability of the existing fleet.
• The production surplus is expected to double, from 63 TWh in 2025 to 129 TWh in 2035.
• The share of renewables is set to triple by 2035. Solar cannibalization is expected to intensify, benefiting batteries.

To discuss this article, contact Timothée: timothee@modoenergy.com

Renewable Targets Lowered, But Rollout Continues

For the first time, PPE3 sets an official course for renewables by 2030, following three years of intense debate.

The targets are lower than those set out in the March 2025 public consultation: 48 GW of solar instead of 54 GW, and 31 GW of onshore wind instead of 33 GW.

This revision is due to stagnating French electricity consumption, which led RTE to revise its forecasts downward last December.

For the solar industry, these targets secure a 3.5 GW per year pipeline. Projects in development now have regulatory visibility through 2030. The auction calendar is to be confirmed by the Commission de Régulation de l'Énergie (CRE).

Nuclear Targets 400 TWh by Optimizing the Existing Fleet

PPE3 marks a nuclear revival, breaking with the previous plan that called for closing 14 reactors. The goal: 380 to 420 TWh of output in 2030, up from 320 TWh in 2023. EDF is targeting 400 TWh.

This ambition relies primarily on optimizing the current fleet.

Reaching 400 TWh would require a capacity factor of about 82%, compared to 75% today. The Grand Carénage program, designed to extend reactor lifespans, should help achieve this.

Despite the higher output, nuclear's share is expected to fall from 68% of the mix in 2025 to 55% in 2035, due to renewables growth.

​In the longer term, PPE3 confirms the construction of six EPR2 reactors by 2040, laying the groundwork for fleet renewal.

Production Surplus Could Double by 2035

PPE3 projections show a growing production surplus.

In 2025, France will produce 538 TWh for a demand of 475 TWh, a 63 TWh surplus for export.

By 2035, output is expected to reach 724 TWh for a demand of 595 TWh. This 66 TWh gap should put downward pressure on average prices and increase the number of surplus hours to be managed.

Renewables should grow from 78 TWh (15% of the mix) to 208 TWh (29% of the mix).

These projections remain subject to actual demand trends. A review clause is planned for 2027 to adjust 2030-2035 targets based on observed growth.

The Expected Path Will Further Depress Solar Capture Rates and Confirm the Need for Flexibility

​The decline in solar capture rates since 2020 was a central issue in this PPE.

This decline is the result of solar cannibalization: as installed capacity increases, midday prices collapse. In 2025, France recorded 508 hours of negative prices, up from 147 in 2023.

Confirming a 3.5 GW annual rollout is likely to intensify this trend and boost battery arbitrage revenues.

​The framework is set. CRE must now specify the auction schedule for the coming years.