The PPE3 announced by Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu puts an end to three years of regulatory uncertainty. For developers and investors, it provides a framework to build upon.

Nuclear energy will remain the backbone of the system, while renewables are set to grow at a pace compatible with grid stability.

Key points:

• Renewable targets have been revised downward. Solar moves from 54 to 48 GW, and onshore wind from 35 to 31 GW for 2030.
• Nuclear aims for 400 TWh in 2030, around 10% more than today, thanks to improved availability of the existing fleet.
• The production surplus is expected to double, from 63 TWh in 2025 to 129 TWh in 2035.
• The share of renewables should triple by 2035. Solar cannibalization is expected to intensify, benefiting batteries.

To discuss this article, contact Timothée: timothee@modoenergy.com

Renewable targets revised downward, but rollout continues

PPE3 sets, for the first time, an official course for renewables by 2030, after three years of intense debate.

The targets are lower than those in the March 2025 public consultation: 48 GW of solar instead of 54 GW, and 31 GW of onshore wind instead of 33 GW.

This revision is due to stagnant electricity consumption in France, which led RTE to lower its forecasts last December.

For the solar industry, these targets secure a pipeline of 3.5 GW per year. Projects in development now have regulatory visibility through 2030. The auction schedule still needs confirmation by the French Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE).

Nuclear targets 400 TWh by optimizing the current fleet

PPE3 marks a nuclear revival, breaking with previous plans to close 14 reactors. The goal: 380 to 420 TWh of output in 2030, up from 320 TWh in 2023. EDF is targeting 400 TWh.

This ambition relies above all on optimizing the existing fleet.

Reaching 400 TWh would require an availability factor of about 82%, up from 75% today. The Grand Carénage program, aimed at extending reactor lifespans, should help achieve this.

Despite this volume increase, nuclear is expected to decline in relative share, from 68% of the mix in 2025 to 55% in 2035, due to renewable growth.

​In the longer term, PPE3 confirms the construction of six EPR2 reactors by 2040, laying the groundwork for fleet renewal.

Production surplus could double by 2035

PPE3 projections show a growing production surplus.

In 2025, France will produce 538 TWh for a demand of 475 TWh, resulting in a 63 TWh surplus for export.

By 2035, production should reach 724 TWh for a demand of 595 TWh. This 129 TWh gap should put downward pressure on average prices and increase the number of surplus hours to be managed.

Renewables are expected to rise from 78 TWh (15% of the mix) to 208 TWh (29% of the mix).

However, these projections still depend on how demand actually evolves. A review clause is planned for 2027 to adjust 2030–2035 targets based on actual trends.

The expected trajectory will worsen solar capture rates and confirm the need for flexibility

​The decline in solar capture rates since 2020 has been central to PPE discussions.

This deterioration results from solar cannibalization: as installed capacity increases, midday prices collapse. In 2025, France recorded 508 hours of negative prices, up from 147 in 2023.

Confirming a 3.5 GW per year rollout should amplify this trend and boost battery arbitrage revenues.

​The framework is set. CRE must now clarify the auction calendar for the coming years.