In 2026, ERCOT batteries face a competitive fleet, alongside solar and wind growth that is reducing net load. Declining volatility is compressing the spreads that drive battery revenues.

At the same time, ERCOT’s Real-Time Co-optimization with Batteries (RTC+B) launched in December 2025 and introduced a new structural relationship between Day-Ahead and Real-Time arbitrage opportunities.

February’s price data illustrates how these dynamics are shaping battery strategy. Although arbitrage opportunities declined, persistent spreads between Day-Ahead and Real-Time Ancillary Services suggest batteries can still extract value from RTC+B if optimizers position their bids effectively.

Key takeaways

• ​February 2026 BESS revenues are forecasted to average $1.08/kW-month, down from December's $1.70/kW-month, as solar growth and milder weather reduced the intra-day price volatility that batteries rely on for energy arbitrage
• A persistent DA-RT Ancillary Service spread emerged after RTC+B launched in December, with Day-Ahead prices clearing higher than Real-Time across all five AS products for most hours
• Batteries that committed to Day-Ahead Ancillary Services could earn significantly more, though the DA-RT spread has narrowed since December, suggesting that competition for the arbitrage opportunity is already intensifying
• 2-hour batteries earned 56% more than 1-hour systems in December, and Habitat Energy led all optimizers with an 84% TBX capture rate versus a fleet median of 35%

​ERCOT Nowcast | February 2026: $1.09/kW-month

​Growth in BESS and renewables continues to flatten ERCOT’s price shape

February 2026 saw milder prices compared to the year prior, with far fewer scarcity-driven spikes in both the Day-Ahead and Real-Time markets. This is related to the continued rapid development of solar and storage in ERCOT, alongside the fact that February 2026 had none of the cold weather that the Feb. 19 and 20 cold snap brought in 2025.

In the last 12 months, batteries in ERCOT have captured 51% of RT TB spreads, on average. If this capture rate is applied to February’s spreads, average revenues would be $1.09/kW-month