​European solar expanded again in March 2026. The economics, however, are split sharply by country. In Spain, capture prices recovered to just €13.51/MWh. In Italy, they hit €124.72/MWh on a national level.

The difference comes down to gas. In Italy, gas sets the marginal price during virtually every hour that solar generates. Elevated gas prices, driven by continued Middle East tensions, kept wholesale prices high throughout March. Italian solar generators captured almost the full benefit.

Key takeaways

• Italy's solar capture price hit €124.72/MWh in March 2026, up €22 year-on-year and the highest in Europe. Spain’s capture price improved slightly compared to February, but remains 10x lower than Italy’s.
• Gas sets the marginal price in Italy more often than in Spain and France, often even during solar hours, insulating generators from cannibalisation. Italy leads Europe in annual capture rates at 86%, despite high irradiation.
• Germany’s and GB’s capture rates improved year on year despite a larger solar base, on the back of lower solar irradiance. France, Spain, and Poland showed higher irradiation and lower capture rates this March compared to last.
• Italy's lack of solar cannibalisation is a function of both installed capacity and the system's flexibility. Despite some of the best solar economics in Europe, Italy's deployment pipeline is constrained: 140 GW sits in the grid connection queue, but the Decreto Agricoltura (May 2024) banned ground-mounted solar on agricultural land, stalling permitting for new projects.

Gas shields Italian solar from cannibalisation

Italy's wholesale electricity market remains heavily gas-dependent. In March 2026, gas still set the marginal price during many of the hours in which solar generated. This is structurally different from markets like Spain, where an expanding solar fleet increasingly sets its own price.

Italy's capture price of €124.72/MWh in March 2026 was the highest in Europe, more than double Germany's €59/MWh and nearly 10x Spain's €13.51/MWh.

Italian capture prices rose from February to March - the March price is well above the trailing 12-month average of €97.32/MWh. Elevated gas prices in March, sustained by supply anxiety following the Iran war, pushed wholesale prices higher, and Italian solar generators captured almost all of it.

In most European markets, capture prices fell in March compared to February as seasonal output rose. Strong solar generation in the middle of the day meant that even elevated gas prices had little impact on solar revenues. Italy is the only country which showed the effects of the gas price increase in solar capture prices.

Italy leads on capture rate, not just capture price

Capture price depends partly on average wholesale prices, which are high in Italy by European standards. Italian wholesale prices averaged €112.75/MWh over the past 12 months, against €86/MWh in Germany and €54.40/MWh in France. Gas dependence and reliance on imports keep the floor elevated.

Capture rate tells a different and more comparable story. It measures how well solar generators track the wholesale average, regardless of its level. A falling capture rate means solar is depressing prices during the hours it generates. A high capture rate shows the installed solar base has only a little impact on the relevant market prices so far.