Q3 2026 brought one utility-scale renewables project into commercial operation in the NEM: the 200 MW Glenellen Solar Farm in New South Wales. 2026 is running at 47% of 2025's buildout by Q3. Meanwhile, no wind completed commissioning.

Four more renewable projects are expected to come online in Q4. However, the pace is not expected to accelerate until 2029. Modo Energy's forecast adds 10.0 GW of solar and 4.7 GW of wind by 2030, but 74% of it comes in the last two years.

This is the first edition of Modo Energy's quarterly NEM renewables buildout report, the solar and wind companion to the NEM BESS Buildout report. It covers new projects, battery co-location, contracted capacity, the pipeline, and Modo Energy's forecast to 2035.

Key takeaways

• Q3 brought one project, Glenellen Solar (200 MW). Q4 already has Golden Plains West and Mulwala Solar at full output, with MacIntyre Wind and Lancaster Solar due next.
• New South Wales leads on solar and Victoria on wind. New South Wales also takes the largest share of forecast growth in both.
• 4.8 GW of wind and 3.3 GW of solar have offtakes, with 43% due within two years. Only 14% of the 24.8 GW with government underwriting is expected in the next 2 years
• New solar is pairing with a battery of equal capacity. Wind is starting to follow, with batteries in construction at Golden Plains, Goyder South and Gawara Baya.
• Modo Energy's forecast adds 1–1.4 GW of solar per year until 2029, then 3–4 GW a year to 2035 as Yallourn and Eraring close. Wind is 1–1.5 GW per year until 2035, picking up in the late 2030s.

Two renewable projects went live in Q3, but a busier Q4 is lined up

Glenellen Solar Farm, owned by Global Power Generation (Naturgy), reached commercial operation in September. 50% of Glennellen’s power is contracted via a PPA with Telstra.

The commissioning queue will drive Q4 growth. Golden Plains Wind Farm West, the 557 MW second stage of Australia's largest wind farm, has run at full output since 3 October after commissioning through 2026.

Meanwhile, MacIntyre Wind Farm (890 MW) has been generating for two years. It is releasing its output in stages as it clears AEMO's hold points. The final stage is expected to be completed in Q4.

Two smaller solar farms are close behind. Mulwala has run at full output since 22 October, and Lancaster is producing near-full output. If these four projects complete, Q4 would add around 1.6 GW, eight times Q3.

A third of solar capacity will have a battery by 2029, and 15% of wind

Batteries have become standard for new solar. A fifth of solar capacity now has a battery on site, three times the share in 2023, as new hybrids open and older farms add batteries. Committed projects take that to a third by 2029, while standalone solar holds flat. Including projects still in planning, it passes 60%.

Battery sizing within hybrids is also growing. Operating hybrids carry batteries at less than half their solar capacity. Announced projects typically plan a battery as large as the solar farm. Developers are sizing batteries to increase flexibility and firm generation.

Wind's battery pairing is less common because standalone wind captures higher prices than solar, so it has less to gain from shifting output. Four operating wind farms have batteries (Hornsdale, Lake Bonney, Bulgana and Clements Gap), about 6% of operating wind capacity.

Meanwhile, batteries are under construction at Golden Plains and Goyder South. Gawara Baya, due in 2030, also brings BESS. Committed projects take wind with a battery to 15% of wind capacity by 2029. However, announced wind hybrids plan batteries at around half their generator capacity, while solar builds with matched capacity.

New South Wales keeps lead on solar; Victoria keeps wind

New South Wales has led solar capacity all year, and Glenellen widened its lead over Queensland. It also holds the largest solar pipeline beyond planning, so the lead looks set to grow.

Victoria remains the NEM's largest wind state, with nearly twice New South Wales's capacity. Queensland, though, has the most wind in commissioning, construction, or confirmed projects, led by MacIntyre.

43% of capacity with offtakes is expected within two years, only 14% with government underwriting

Twenty-three projects not yet operating have announced offtakes, with Amazon and Rio Tinto the most active buyers alongside Queensland's state-owned Stanwell and CleanCo. 43% of that capacity is due within two years.

Government underwriting is broader but further away. The Capacity Investment Scheme backs 57 projects, with LTESA and Victoria's VRET supporting a handful more. Underwriting is a revenue floor rather than a sale of output, so it is shown separately from offtakes. It covers 13% of the pipeline and half of the capacity beyond planning, but only 14% of underwritten capacity is expected within two years. Projects are struggling to secure bankability with a government contract alone.

Solar picks up in 2029 as coal closes, while wind builds gradually to 2035

Beyond commissioning, the committed pipeline is thin: around 2 GW each of solar and wind is in construction or confirmed. Planning is far larger, at 64 GW of solar and 117 GW of wind. Only 14 GW of that solar and 12 GW of that wind are expected before 2030, and most of the rest has no target date.

The pace picks up in 2029. Modo Energy's October 2026 forecast adds 1.4 GW of solar in 2027 and 1.0 GW in 2028, then 3.8 GW in 2029 as Yallourn and Eraring close and wholesale prices rise. By 2035, the solar fleet will be more than three times today's size.

Wind grows more evenly. It adds 1.1 GW in 2027, 0.4 GW in 2028 and 1.8 GW in 2029, then 1.3–1.5 GW a year to 2035. Beyond this report's horizon, it rises to an average of 1.6 GW per year from 2035 to 2040.

Victoria's wind fleet stays broadly flat over the decade, while New South Wales more than triples. New South Wales also takes half of the solar added to 2035.

What to watch from here

Q4 should be 2026's strongest quarter. With Golden Plains West, and if MacIntyre and Lancaster complete, Q4 adds around 1.6 GW. Wambo 2 follows in Q1 2027.

Meanwhile, capital is returning to ramp up for the next waves of renewable build-out. The Q3 Capital Markets Report recorded the busiest quarter since tracking began in 2025. Q3 brought the first wind financial closes of 2026, at Gawara Baya and Kondinin. Every solar megawatt financed or sold in the quarter sat inside a hybrid.

November also brings the CIS Tender 9 results, targeting 5 GW of generation outside New South Wales, with underwriting that supports the case for lending when paired with offtakes.