​The October 2026 version of Modo Energy's revenue forecast for Australia's NEM is now live in the terminal.

This release adds five asset configurations to the forecast: standalone solar, standalone wind, and wind paired with solar, a battery, or both. It also changes how the model limits network flows, how batteries bid and how long-duration storage manages its state of charge across the year.

Transmission, demand and cost inputs are updated to AEMO's final 2026 ISP, the 2026 ESOO and CSIRO's final GenCost 2025-26. Modo Energy's own forecasts for data centres, household batteries and battery costs have also been revised.

View the changelog for a breakdown of everything that has changed in this release. To find out more about the forecast, check out our methodology or book a demo.

Key updates

• Wind and solar are now available: standalone wind and solar, along with all hybrid sites (wind + solar, wind + BESS, wind + solar + BESS), can be forecast in the terminal.
• Transmission carries secure transfer limits: flows across key intra-state corridors are capped at what the network can carry securely through a credible contingency (N-1).
• Batteries bid against the thermal stack: BESS shadow the bids of competing coal and gas generation, so offers track the market they compete in.
• Transmission timelines match the final 2026 ISP: major links include HumeLink (2027), VNI West (2031) and QNI Connect (2041).
• Demand and costs follow the latest AEMO and CSIRO data: underlying demand is 2.4% higher in 2030 than in the July release, and 2030 utility solar capex is 39% higher.
• 2050 data-centre demand increased 9% Modo Energy's forecast reaches 40.1 TWh by 2050, from 36.8 TWh in the July release.

New features

Forecast wind, solar, and more hybrid configurations

The October release adds five asset configurations to the NEM forecast. This means standalone wind and standalone solar, as well as the hybrid combinations between wind, solar, and BESS. As the NEM moves towards hybrids and energy parks, Modo Energy can forecast full project revenues.

Forecast modelling changes

Secure transfer limits cap flows across corridors

The forecast applies AEMO's secure transfer limits to flows across 19 corridors, including routes within states. These are AEMO's published flow path limits, set so the network stays secure after a credible contingency (N-1).

Batteries bid against the rest of the supply stack

Batteries shadow the bids of the coal and gas generation they can displace in each state, offering just below them. Offers adapt each day as the stack changes, with coal closing and gas setting more prices, so forecast battery dispatch and revenue track each state's thermal fleet.

Long-duration storage follows a year-long state-of-charge plan

Pumped hydro and other long-duration storage follow one state-of-charge plan for the whole year, so each day starts where the previous day ended. Storage therefore charges from surplus wind and solar on low net-load days and holds that energy for the tightest days, softening price spikes when the system is most stressed.

The state-of-charge plan is driven by net load: demand less wind, solar and run-of-river hydro output. Storage saves energy on below-average net-load days and releases it on the highest, with releases ramping up between the 80th and 95th percentiles of the year's net load.

Ahead of the most stressed days, the 5% with the highest net load, the plan fills storage, keeping it between 5% and 95% of capacity.

Input changes

Transmission timelines reflect the most recent 2026 ISP

HumeLink (December 2027) strengthens the southern route into Sydney, and VNI West (December 2031) links Victoria and New South Wales more tightly, lowering Victorian and South Australian prices when it connects. QNI Connect adds capacity between Queensland and New South Wales from July 2041.

Demand forecast updated to the 2026 ESOO

Annual consumption in each state follows AEMO's 2026 ESOO Step Change scenario for residential and business consumption, electrification, large industrial loads, LNG and network losses. Hydrogen production follows the ESOO's Slower Growth scenario. Electric vehicle charging follows AEMO's ISP traces, and rooftop solar is modelled from AEMO's capacity projections. Household batteries follow Modo Energy's own uptake curve. Excluding data centres, consumption is 2.4% higher than in the July release in 2030, and 7% higher by 2050.

Data-centre demand follows Modo Energy's own forecast, now revised up, as data centre developers have accelerated ambition again over the quarter. It reaches 15.2 TWh in 2030 and 40.1 TWh by 2050, 7% and 9% above the July release. Queensland and South Australia take a larger share, as these states move to capture the opportunities that New South Wales and Victoria have led. As data centres move to more regional siting, away from demand centres, these states open up.

Capital cost forecast updated to the final 2025-26 GenCost

Utility solar capex for 2030 is A$1,351/kW, 39% higher than in the July release, and the gap widens to 63% by 2035-36. CSIRO revised current solar costs up on updated GHD cost data, and expects Australian installation costs to keep rising. Near-term gas turbine costs rise 17%, while onshore wind is broadly unchanged.

BESS capex continues to be set by Modo Energy's own market intelligence and industry feedback.

Gas and coal updated to the latest futures

Wallumbilla gas futures for 2027 average A$10.74/GJ, down 5% from A$11.35/GJ in July. Victorian gas falls further, by 15% to A$9.78/GJ. Newcastle coal futures for 2027 are 6.5% lower, at US$139/t. Lower gas prices pull down evening prices where gas sets the price, narrowing near-term battery spreads.

Output changes

A renewable system built on solar and storage

By 2050, solar and storage make up 61% of the NEM's 229 GW of installed capacity, excluding reservoir hydro. Wind and solar supply 59% of generation by 2035 and 78% by 2050, as coal falls from 21 GW today to under 1 GW.

Wind and solar are evenly balanced up to 2035, then the mix tilts towards wind. By 2050, wind supplies 41% of generation and solar 37%, against 30% and 36% in the July release, when solar led. This largely reflects higher solar capital costs in CSIRO’s final GenCost.

Prices rise around each wave of coal closures

Wholesale prices follow the coal closure schedule. They rise to A$103/MWh across the five regions in 2029 as Yallourn and Eraring close. New South Wales peaks at A$113/MWh in 2033 as Bayswater begins to close.

Prices ease in the late 2030s as replacement storage and firming come online. They rise again with the last closures: Mt Piper and Callide C in the early 2040s, then Stanwell and Loy Yang B through to 2047.

Battery spreads first peak in 2029-31 as Yallourn and Eraring close, then in New South Wales in 2033. They dip through the mid-2030s as new storage arrives, and widen again through the 2040s as the last coal leaves. Across the four mainland states, TB2 spreads average A$122/MWh to 2035 and A$144/MWh from 2041 to 2050.

Wind and solar capture rates hold up across the horizon. From 2027 to 2050, wind earns around 87% of the average wholesale price and solar around 36%. Solar capture is lowest in New South Wales, at around 27% by the late 2040s.

What this means for forecast users

Battery revenue tracks the coal closure schedule. Spreads peak around the early closures and widen through the 2040s as the last units leave.

Solar and wind developers can now forecast standalone and co-located projects at their node.