​New York City's reference price held at $199.6/MW-day in July 2026, up just 3.4% year-over-year. But its two components moved in opposite directions. The capacity component, the Reference Capacity Price (RCP), fell 61% from June to $84.46/MW-day. The energy component, the Reference Energy Arbitrage Price (REAP), rose 143% from June to $115.14/MW-day. July was Champlain Hudson Power Express's (CHPE) first capacity auction, lowering NYC capacity prices, and an early-July heat wave widened day-ahead spreads.

Capacity made up 42% of the city's reference price in July, down from 82% in June.

The decrease in capacity price in turn limited New York City's locational premium. Its reference price was 3.2 times the weakest upstate zone in May, and only 2.1 times the weakest zone in July.

Key takeaways

• New York City's UCAP price fell 62% from June, to $12.41/kW-month, as CHPE could offer capacity for the first time. That halved capacity’s share to 42% of the city's reference price, from 87% in May.
• Day-ahead TB4 spreads averaged $302/MW-day at the reference node, up 11% year-over-year. A statewide heat wave on July 1-3 delivered 44% of potential day-ahead revenues in three days. Day-ahead sets REAP, so those days set the energy half of the reference price.
• NYCA regulation peaked at $139/MWh on July 2, six times the month's $22.90/MWh average. This is additional upside, revenue beyond the RCP and the REAP that batteries capture by following the regulation signal through the highest-priced hours.

Reference prices converged across New York's zones

The RCP carries the capacity market result into the reference price, and in New York City it has historically been the larger of the price components. Capacity made up 87% of the city's $244/MW-day reference price in May. In July it made up just 42% of $200/MW-day.

The shift narrowed the range of reference prices across zones. The gap between the strongest and weakest zone fell 39%, from $167/MW-day to $103/MW-day.

Upstate landed between $96.94/MW-day in North and $113.25/MW-day in Capital. All held within 1.3% of last July, apart from Capital, which fell 8.5%. Dunwoodie led the Hudson Valley group at $143.71/MW-day, up 14.2%.

Long Island rose most, to $196.72/MW-day, up 32.5%. Its UCAP price nearly doubled YoY and it carried the highest day-ahead spread in the state. The Long Island reference price is now level with New York City.

Champlain Hudson Power Express cut the capacity price

New York City is transmission-constrained, so NYISO requires a minimum share of procured capacity to sit inside the city. When in-city capacity is tight, NYC clears above the rest of the state.

CHPE reached commercial operation on May 13, delivering Quebec hydropower into NYC. It missed NYISO's notice deadline for the May auction, so the line counted as energy but not as capacity in May and June. July was the first month of participation in capacity markets.

NYC UCAP cleared at $12.4/kW-month, against $32.5/kW-month in June and $15.9/kW-month in July 2025. Long Island cleared at $10.46/kW-month and the rest of the state at $4.14/kW-month.

NYISO also changed capacity accreditations following CHPE's participation. July uses the accreditation factors NYISO publishes with CHPE modeled in, rather than out. New York City's four-hour battery factor rose from 80.75% to 84.39%. That offset part of the price fall, leaving NYC's RCP at $84.46/MW-day.

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A statewide heat wave drove July's spreads

A heat wave running June 30 to July 4 set the month's highest temperatures, loads, prices and spreads. Statewide highs reached 94.2°F on July 2, against a monthly average of 82.6°F.

Cooling demand drove load higher. NYISO peaked at 31,221 MW on July 2, about 92% of New York's all-time record set in July 2013.

REAP is defined by the day-ahead spread. At the reference node, day-ahead TB4 reached $891/MW-day on July 1, $1,750/MW-day on July 2 and $1,457/MW-day on July 3. Across the other 28 days it averaged $189/MW-day. Those three days ran 7 times higher than the monthly average and delivered 44% of July's potential revenue from day-ahead spreads.