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​Australia: Low market volatility drove declining capture rates in Q4 2025

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​Australia: Low market volatility drove declining capture rates in Q4 2025

Battery optimisation in the NEM faced challenging conditions in Q4 2025 as the National Electricity Market (NEM) delivered sustained low volatility. Compressed energy spreads and subdued FCAS prices reduced revenue opportunities, lowering capture rates across the fleet.

Despite these conditions, Queensland batteries maintained the highest capture rates across the fleet. Consistent energy arbitrage opportunities proved easier to capture than brief extreme price spikes in other regions.

This report benchmarks battery optimiser performance over Q4 2025 and explores the factors that influenced capture rates and revenues across the NEM.

This report is the Q4 2025 update of our BESS optimiser benchmark series. For more information, read our Q3 2025 report.

Executive summary

  • Capture rates declined quarter-on-quarter as market volatility fell. Many batteries reduced cycling rates, waiting for higher-volatility periods.
  • Queensland batteries maintained their 12-month lead despite losing Lower Contingency FCAS upside. Consistent energy arbitrage kept Queensland batteries ahead.
  • New market entrants expanded the competitive landscape. Stanwell, Zen Energy, and Habitat entered the market, diversifying market power and introducing new optimisation strategies.
  • Shell Energy batteries recorded the highest adjusted capture rates over the last 12 months. Riverina 1 topped the Q4 leaderboard, maintaining Shell's position as the most consistent performer across varying market conditions.


Lower volatility in Q4 2025 led to declining capture rates across the fleet

Market volatility fell in Q4, driving capture rates down across most of the battery fleet. Assets responded to lower market volatility by reducing their cycling, lowering their capture rate for the quarter. Queensland batteries recorded some of the steepest declines. Lower Contingency FCAS volatility, which supported a strong Q3 performance, returned to normal levels in Q4. This removed opportunities for batteries to co-optimise across wholesale and FCAS markets.

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