​AEMO’s 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) shows the NEM’s 10-year reliability outlook has improved, but a deliverability gap remains.

Since the 2025 ESOO, storage and renewables have expanded, while extended coal plant lifetimes have reduced near-term pressure. The pipeline now contains enough ‘advanced and government-supported capacity’ to support thermal retirements and rising demand into the early 2030s.

However, a gap exists between this capacity and projects that are ‘committed and anticipated’. Reliability depends on projects progressing through financial milestones, major transmission arriving on time, firming, and maintained availability of ageing thermal generation.

For developers and investors, these risks point toward opportunities for projects that combine renewable generation, long-duration storage, transmission access, grid services and contracted revenue. This article presents five of those takeaway opportunities.

Executive Summary

• NSW and Victoria account for 80% of the 2036 reliability gap in the government-backed case, making them the focus markets as coal retires and data-centre demand grows.
• Wind has the largest deliverability gap between CAD and GSAD assessments at 10.5 GW, highlighting the need for new projects to complement solar and storage.
• Scarcity events need longer duration storage. Most shortfall events will be longer than four hours by 2030, as shorter durations can be met with the existing fleet and pipeline.
• Winter accounts for 75% of early reliability shortfall in 2034, but its share falls below 40% by 2035-36, as reliability risk shifts to year-round.

New South Wales and Victoria are the opportunity markets to close the ESOO reliability gaps

New South Wales sees reliability challenges following Eraring’s retirement (2.9 GW) in 2029, followed by Bayswater (2.7 GW) and Vales Point B (1.3 GW) in 2033. Sydney’s data-centre demand is also rising rapidly. Victoria faces Yallourn’s retirement (1.5 GW) in 2028 and Loy Yang A (2.2 GW) in 2035, alongside rising winter electrification and data-centre demand.

ESOO reliability gaps in both states demonstrate the need for a combination of new energy production and firming capacity.

Data centres are also driving demand increases. By 2036, Modo Energy forecasts an additional 5.2 GW of IT load. New South Wales accounts for 46% of the data centre grid demand, and Victoria, 39%.

The AEMC has recommended that new large data centres procure firmed renewable supply. While the Federal Government has not mandated the renewable specification, data centres must still effectively underwrite new power supply and act as net generators. These measures create a new source of contracted demand in the two states.

Reliability depends on the NEM delivering more wind

The NEM has a strong pipeline of batteries and solar, but wind is less progressed. Under the ESOO Government Schemes and Actionable Developments case, AEMO assumes 16.7 GW of new onshore wind over the next five years. However, only 6.8 GW makes it in the Committed and Anticipated case. The 10.5 GW gap is the largest relative difference across the three main growing technologies: solar, wind and storage.

Wind complements the solar and storage build-out. Wind produces more energy outside the middle of the day, while batteries shift existing energy rather than creating new supply. As coal retires, bankable wind with transmission access becomes one of the clearest gaps in the outlook, particularly for winter energy supply.

AEMO identifies economics, contracting, transmission access, approvals, community acceptance and connection requirements as key barriers. Improving project revenues alone will not necessarily solve the problem: projects also need viable sites, connections and social licence.

Longer-duration scarcity in the ESOO calls for longer-duration storage

Short-duration batteries remain valuable for peak capacity, arbitrage, ancillary services and congestion management. But the ESOO models later reliability shortfalls increasingly last far longer than the evening peak.

In New South Wales, the median duration of expected unserved energy events is less than 4 hours. From 2033 onwards, it is greater than 8 hours. This highlights the opportunity for long-duration storage.

The market is moving to meet these reliability gaps. New South Wales’s Long-Term Energy Service Agreement (LTESA) requires long-duration storage to discharge for at least eight hours. The Capacity Investment Scheme focuses on four-hour durations and supports longer.

Winter is the first season for reliability pressure

The ESOO near-term reliability problem is concentrated in winter. Solar output is lowest then, while wind resources are generally stronger, making wind particularly valuable for the emerging gap.

The gaps extend to other seasons over time. Winter accounts for about three-quarters of the shortfall in the first year gaps appear, falling below two-fifths by 2035-36 as the deficit becomes more evenly distributed through the year.

The scale of the gap again depends on delivery. If government-backed projects arrive on time, expected unserved energy across the NEM remains below 1 GWh a year until 2033-34, before rising to 3.5 TWh by 2035-36.

For developers and investors, the timing and seasonality of this shortfall should be considered in the business case. Projects that can reliably deliver energy through winter, particularly wind and longer-duration storage, are better positioned to capture the emerging reliability opportunity. Further out, the opportunity broadens as scarcity becomes more evenly distributed across the year.

South Australia’s opportunity is increasingly industrial-linked

South Australian industrial consumption is forecast to more than double, from 3.3 TWh to 7.5 TWh by 2035-36. Mining, smelting and data centres drive this increase. Meanwhile, residential demand remains within 23% of today.

The greatest opportunity in South Australia is therefore in matching supply to new industrial loads. Generation contracted to industrial customers, storage that utilises high-renewable periods, and projects that can make effective use of Project EnergyConnect, all become more valuable.

The ESOO shows opportunities rest with the projects with strongest deliverability

The 2026 ESOO shows that the NEM has a strong development pipeline, but the challenge is deliverability. For investors, the strongest projects add renewable energy, have secured transmission access, provide firm energy for long durations, provide grid services and secure revenue through contracts outside the merchant market. Government-backed support structures are placing increasing emphasis on project deliverability and timeline in addition to financial value.