Battery offtakes are central to how storage projects are financed in the NEM. They convert a portion or all of a battery’s future market exposure into contracted revenue, helping owners reduce volatility, secure debt, and advance projects through investment approval.

An offtake contract gives another party rights to some or all of a battery’s market value. The structure can transfer operational control, settle financially against market outcomes, or support a broader renewable supply agreement.

You can now query Ko for Modo’s NEM battery offtake dataset. Ko can analyse by contract type, offtaker, contracted capacity, tenor, state, project status and government support. It can also connect offtake data to the broader battery asset register so that contract coverage can be analysed against the buildout pipeline.

NEM battery offtakes fall into five structures

Battery offtakes differ in the extent to which control and revenue risk transfer from the owner to the offtaker. Five structures account for the disclosed NEM market:

• Physical toll: the owner transfers operational control to the offtaker. The offtaker manages dispatch, registration and market revenue, whilst the owner receives a fixed payment.
• Virtual toll: the owner keeps operational control, whilst the offtaker receives a financial exposure to nominated charge and discharge positions.
• Firmed PPA: the battery supports renewable energy delivery, usually as part of a broader contracted supply arrangement.
• Revenue share/swap: the owner keeps operational control and receives a minimum payment, whilst sharing market upside with the offtaker.
• Capacity swap: an emerging financial structure that exchanges capacity value between counterparties.

Ko links those contracts to the wider NEM battery buildout. It can join offtake data to the asset register, which includes capacity, status, owner and commercial operations dates, and to government contract data covering CIS, LTESA, FERM and VRET support.

Analyse NEM battery offtakes with Ko

The examples below were produced by asking Ko questions against the NEM offtake tables. Ko identified the right tables, wrote the SQL and produced the written interpretation. Each chart was built from the same underlying data, and you can ask Ko the same questions directly.

Output: Physical tolls remain the backbone. The only structure used before 2021, they accumulate steadily to around 2.3 GW by 2029. Virtual tolls climb quickly from 2025, with their biggest single-year jump in 2026 to 2027 as large pipeline projects including Elaine BESS, Golden Plains and Western Downs 3 come online, reaching around 2.2 GW by 2029. PPAs are the fastest-growing type by 2027 to 2029: essentially absent until 2025, they grow through industrial and tech-hyperscaler deals (Rio Tinto, Amazon, BHP, Flow Power) to around 1.7 GW by 2029. Revenue and capacity swaps stay niche, together reaching around 775 MW. Pipeline years use Modo’s anticipated commercial operations dates, where slippage is common.

​Output: Government schemes have lined up a large pipeline, but most of it has yet to clear FID. The Commonwealth’s CIS dominates the volume, with Tenders 3 and 4 alone covering more than 9 GW, yet both have very low conversion so far: only around 300 MW of Tender 4’s 4,730 MW is past FID, and roughly 920 MW of Tender 3’s 4,640 MW. CIS Tenders 1 and 7 sit entirely pre-FID. NSW’s LTESA has a much stronger track record, reflecting its longer runtime: the earlier rounds are fully past FID, and the bulk of LTESA capacity has already gone through. FERM Round 1 is early, with about 200 MW of 1,330 MW committed. The pattern shows government support is expanding quickly, but it has still to prove it can convert commitments into built capacity.

Output: Energy retailers and traders hold the most contracted NEM battery offtake capacity at around 1.8 GW, narrowly ahead of gentailers on around 1.65 GW. Zen Energy (511 MW) and Shell Energy (445 MW) lead the retailer and trader group, alongside financial traders InCommodities and Gunvor Group. Gentailers are led by Origin Energy, the single largest offtaker at 740 MW, with AGL and EnergyAustralia close behind. Corporate and industrial buyers reach around 1.16 GW, led by Rio Tinto (652 MW) and Amazon (336 MW), which contract through PPAs as part of clean-energy commitments. Government and public-sector offtakers — Snowy Hydro, the ACT Government, Stanwell and Victoria’s SEC — account for around 1 GW, while Tesla is the sole technology offtaker.

Output: BESS physical and virtual toll contract lengths have lengthened since 2022, while revenue swaps vary widely. Physical tolls have lengthened materially, from around 10 to 12 years in 2018 to 2022 up to 16.7 years in 2023, then settling around 12 to 14 years in 2024 to 2025, as the market matures and developers need longer terms to stack debt against. Virtual tolls jumped from 7 years in 2022 to 13.3 years by 2025, converging on physical toll lengths. Revenue swaps started at 8 years in 2021, peaked at 12.5 years in 2023, and have since ranged between 7 and 10 years. PPAs are less common and sit at around 15 years, consistent with securing project finance for greenfield assets. Around a fifth of contracts have undisclosed lengths and are excluded.

Output: Physical toll and virtual toll contract lengths have lengthened since 2022, while revenue swaps vary widely. Physical tolls have lengthened materially, from around 10 to 12 years in 2018 to 2022 up to 16.7 years on average in 2023, settling around 14 to 15 years in 2024 to 2025, as the market matures and developers need longer terms to stack debt against. Virtual tolls jumped from 7 years in 2022 to around 10 to 13 years in 2024 to 2025. Revenue swaps started short at 8 years in 2021 and lengthened to 10 to 15 years by 2023 to 2025. PPAs show the widest range, from 10 to 30 years, consistent with corporate clean-energy commitments running on different timelines. Around 44% of contracts have undisclosed lengths and are excluded.

Output: Offtake-backed capacity leads the post-FID NEM BESS fleet, with government-backed schemes accelerating from 2026. Offtake is the largest single category, reaching around 5.4 GW by 2028 and covering assets across every contract type, with the Supernode stages, Western Downs, Elaine, Golden Plains and Koorangie among the biggest. Merchant and utility-owned capacity remains significant: fully-merchant projects with no backing sit alongside batteries self-dispatched on the balance sheets of gentailers and state-owned generators such as Origin’s Eraring, Stanwell and CS Energy. Government support barely registers until 2025, then accelerates from 2026 as NSW LTESA and Commonwealth CIS contracts come online. Government plus offtake is the most de-risked category, stacking a government floor with a commercial offtake, and covers Orana, Lower Wonga, Goyder and Bulabul 1.

Analyse NEM offtake data with Ko

When you’re looking for offtake and contracting insights, Ko can quickly grab the data you need and turn it into the product you need. Ask a question, and Ko will identify the right table, write the SQL and return results without any setup.

Example questions to start with:

• Who are the biggest offtakers of NEM battery capacity?
• What types of revenue contracts do NEM batteries have?
• How big are NEM battery offtake deals by contract type?
• What is the average offtake contract length by type?
• How much contracted battery capacity is in each NEM state?
• How much post-FID NEM battery capacity has an offtake versus none?
• Which batteries have both a government scheme and an offtake?