The October 2026 CAISO forecast is live and adds two new scenarios.

High Demand adds faster data center growth and electrification based on the CEC’s Local Reliability forecast, taking CAISO demand 11% above the central case by 2045.

Low Renewables limits California’s new solar and wind growth in line with the CPUC’s Transmission Portfolio Plan, while pushing the state’s 2045 emissions target out by five years.

The forecast also rebuilds the central scenario on updated inputs.

Demand now follows the CEC’s updated 2026 net-load forecast, growing over 60% through 2045. California carbon prices follow the CEC's 2025 IEPR, which cuts 2030 prices by nearly 60%.

Battery costs use Modo Energy's global CAPEX survey. Gas plants retire on the updated CPUC 2026-27 transmission planning schedule. And, in light of federal offshore wind buyouts in the last six months, the forecast no longer assumes offshore wind reaches commercial operation within the forecast timeline.

Key updates

• Capacity expansion starts in 2027: new build is now limited by the interconnection queue and CPUC planning portfolios, and scales with each zone's peak demand growth.
• Demand grows by 60% to 2045: CAISO demand follows the CPUC's 2026 net-load forecast, reaching 367 TWh by 2045.
• Gas tracks new Henry Hub forwards: Updated gas futures lower 2027 prices by 31% over the prior CPUC January 2025 SERVM gas curve. By the 2030s, PG&E and SDG&E gas end up higher.
• Carbon is 57% lower in 2030: $41/t against $95/t (2024 USD), following the updated CEC 2025 IEPR carbon price assumptions.
• No offshore wind: federal lease buyouts remove the 8.8 GW of floating offshore wind previously presumed to be online by 2045.

Input changes

Demand follows the CEC’s 2026 net-load forecast

CAISO demand now follows the CPUC's 2026 SERVM hourly load forecast, built on the CEC's 2025 IEPR.