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Model your own tolls, swaps, revenue shares, and floors in the ERCOT forecast
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Model your own tolls, swaps, revenue shares, and floors in the ERCOT forecast
Revenue contracts are now available for ERCOT standalone BESS forecasts. You can run a forecast adding one or multiple of the following contracts: Day Ahead TBx Swap, Toll Agreement, Revenue Share, and Cap and Floor.
Why it’s useful
As the ERCOT BESS market matures, offtake strategies and revenue contracts have become central to managing revenue risk and financing new projects. Record-low merchant revenues underscore their growing importance, with market-wide average BESS revenues falling to $1.11/kW-month in June 2026.
You can now model the contracts directly in the forecast. This helps:
- Standalone BESS project sponsors (developers, asset managers, owners, investors) test the impact of different contract structures and hedging tools before signing: which structure to take, at what price, and how much merchant upside to give away. This is particularly useful for securing financing for new projects in the current low-revenue environment in ERCOT.
- Financiers size debt against contracted cash flows, assess the downside risk that remains after a project signs (the merchant exposure the contract doesn't cover), and check whether a contract's price is in line with the forecast's fair value.
- Traders calculate expected payoffs of the contracts they offer and mark them against fair value.
How to add a contract in an ERCOT forecast
Create an ERCOT standalone BESS forecast on the Modo Energy Terminal and add one or more contracts to the run.
Example (Index Swap):
