SPP's data center pipeline holds 48 GW of operating and planned capacity, and 46 GW of it is still in planning or construction. Independent developers and neoclouds account for 85% of the capacity not yet operating. The four hyperscalers round out the rest. Oklahoma and New Mexico hold 43% of the pipeline.

Large loads account for much of SPP's load forecast growth, but only part of the pipeline will be built. Modo Energy forecasts 5.1 GW of additional data center demand at the system peak in 2030. The forecast marks down the pipeline in three steps: 1) it drops campus phases below a 50% build likelihood, 2) it caps total U.S. builds, and 3) it scales the remaining capacity to its expected draw at the system peak.

Key takeaways

• Modo Energy expects 8 GW of SPP's 46 GW of data center capacity not yet operating to be built, adding 5.1 GW of demand to the 2030 system peak.
• Most of the pipeline is not projected to reach completion. 85% of the capacity has not started construction, and nearly two thirds has no permit or grid connection request on record.
• Hyperscaler projects are twice as likely to enter the forecast as other developers' (32% vs. 16%, respectively), though independent developers have proposed 84% of the capacity.
• Missouri, Texas and Oklahoma account for almost 60% of the demand added by 2030.
• The demand adds to a tightening system: utilities in SPP's original footprint forecast peak demand up 28% by 2031, against 1% more accredited capacity. SPP West ran short of supply in its first summer and has no adequacy requirement until June 2027.

Ask Ko

• Compile a list of publicly announced data center projects in SPP.
• Which SPP states carry the most data center capacity?
• How much SPP data center capacity is under construction?
• How does SPP's data center buildout compare with PJM's?

46 GW of data center capacity remains in planning or construction

Almost all of SPP's pipeline is still on paper. 85% of the 48 GW has not started construction.