October 2026 Spain Forecast update: gas lifts 2028 battery revenues; a faster build-out gives them back
October 2026 Spain Forecast update: gas lifts 2028 battery revenues; a faster build-out gives them back
Higher gas prices and a larger solar fleet widen Spain's day-ahead spreads in the first years of Modo Energy's October 2026 Forecast. At the same time, the battery fleet buildout accelerates by 2030, compared with the July 2026 release.
A 4-hour standalone battery earns 12% more in 2028 than in the Jul-26 release, then up to 6% less between 2030 and 2037. Cumulative revenue over 2028-2045 is flat against July, for both 2-hour and 4-hour batteries.
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Key takeaways
- A 4-hour standalone battery in Spain earns €174k/MW in 2028, against €155k/MW in July. Most of the uplift comes from an increase in day-ahead revenues, driven by an increase in spreads.
- A fixed-tilt solar plant captures €19/MWh in 2028, €3/MWh below July, as solar buildout continues despite saturation signals.
Why do near-term battery revenues rise?
Two factors widen Spain's day-ahead spreads before 2029. First, higher gas prices raise evening prices, when gas plants set the price.
Second, solar keeps arriving. The October release starts from 58 GW of solar in 2026, 4 GW more than July. More solar pushes midday prices lower, while evening prices stay tied to gas.
The daily price shape widens as a result. The top-bottom 4-hour (TB4) spread measures the value of buying in the four cheapest hours and selling in the four most expensive ones each day. It rises 34% in 2026 and 41% in 2027 against July.
In Spain, the effect fades quickly. By 2030, the TB4 spread sits 12% below July, and it stays lower until 2037. This effect is mainly driven by an increase in buildout compared to the Jul-26 release.
Total battery revenues remain stable between releases
A 2-hour asset earns 6% more in 2028, and a 4-hour asset 3% more in 2029. For a 20 MW standalone battery in Spain, the October release shows an increase in revenues compared to the previous release. However, by 2030, this effect disappears.
Between 2030 and 2037, both durations run up to 6% below July. From 2038, the two releases sit within 3% of each other.
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