In early August 2022, we were very excited to launch Signal, our three-year forward view of battery energy storage revenues.
Two months in, how have the projected revenues compared to the actual revenues - the benchmark figures released as part of our September 2022 leaderboard?
Looking back at how well we looked forward...
The graph below compares the value we estimated for August-September 2022 (as taken from Signal - August 2022 Update) against the revenue benchmark (given by the median fleet revenue) along with the mean fleet revenue.
- The actual benchmark revenue for September 2022 is £140k/MW/a (annualized), shown by the purple cross.
- This is 18% higher than our forecast P50 value and sits well within the uncertainty bands of our forecast given by the P90 value of £157k/MW/a.
- The mean fleet revenue of £155/MW/a (which excludes both use of system charges and capacity market revenues) also sits within the uncertainty bands that Signal gives.
- The mean fleet revenue is higher than the median fleet revenue because the higher revenues of 2-hour systems skew the data.
The graph below compares the breakdown of the benchmark and projection, for each market.
- Signal was within 0.3% for estimating the market split in DC.
- Signal predicted 6% higher wholesale revenues than we saw in reality. These additional revenues spilled over into DC and FFR.
- Signal predicted that 4% of the stack would be from DR, and it turned out to make up just 1% of it. This is largely due to £0/MW/h clearing prices in the high service, with very low volumes in the low service. More about this here.
- In September 2022, just 2% of revenues came from BM actions. In this first version of our battery revenue projection, we omitted revenues from the BM as they’ve been so small, but they’ll be included in our next update.
You can see our public roadmap for Signal here: what we’re currently working on, and what's in the pipeline. We’d love to hear your suggestions on what you’d like us to include next!