01 Sep 2022
Robyn Lucas

Signal vs. the Benchmark: August 2022

In early August 2022, we were very excited to launch Signal, our three-year forward view of battery energy storage revenues.

In this first August update, we gave projected revenues from August 2022 to July 2025. So, one month in, how did we do? How did the projected revenues compare to the actual revenues - the benchmark figures released as part of our August 2022 leaderboard?

Looking back at how well we looked forward...

The graph below compares the value we estimated for August 2022 against the revenue benchmark we’ve just published.

Figure 1: Benchmark revenue of the GB fleet in Signal (P10, P50 and P90 values shown) vs the actual fleet benchmark revenue for August 2022.
  • The actual benchmark revenue for August 2022 is £165,023 (annualised).
  • This is 17% higher than our forecast P50 value, and sits within the uncertainty bands of our forecast given by the P90 value of £168k.

The graph below compares the breakdown of the benchmark and projection, for each market.

Figure 2: Actual and forecast percentage share of the various markets for energy storage, where ‘WS’ indicates wholesale revenues.
  • Signal was within 4% for estimating the market split across DC and FFR.
  • Signal predicted higher wholesale revenues than we saw in reality. These additional revenues spilled over into DC and FFR.
  • In August 2022, 5% of revenues came from BM actions. In this first version of our battery revenue projection, we omitted revenues from the BM as they’ve been so small - but this is something we’re planning to add in soon!

You can see our public roadmap for Signal here: what we’re currently working on, and whats in the pipeline. We’d love to hear your suggestions on what you’d like us to include next!

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