Executive Summary
- GB has seen 149 hours of negative pricing in 2024, up from 107 in 2023 and just 29 in 2022.
- Subsidized renewables, nuclear must-run generation, and interconnector flows are the main drivers of negative prices.
- After 2027, negative price frequency is expected to decline as more renewables are built unsubsidized and nuclear exposure to negative pricing increases.
Subscribers to Modo Energy’s Research will also find out:
- How interconnectors are increasingly setting the most negative prices in GB during midday solar surpluses.
- Why REGOs play a key role in keeping most negative prices above -£5/MWh.
- What changes in CfD policy and demand growth mean for long-term negative price trends.
To get full access to Modo Energy’s Research, book a call with a member of the team today.
Introduction
There have been 149 hours of negative pricing in Great Britain so far in 2024. This follows 107 hours in 2023, and just 29 in 2022. We project this growth to continue through to 2027, when we could see 1,000 hours of negative pricing.
This increase is driven by growth in subsidized, price-insensitive generation capacity, combined with low demand.
Negative prices increase the spreads available to batteries, increasing revenues. 49 hours of negative pricing were a major contributor to batteries earning their of the year so far.