Capacity prices set the direction of NYISO reference prices in October. They pushed Long Island and New York City in opposite directions, and held upstate flat.

Long Island's reference price rose 45% year-over-year, to $106/MW-day. This was driven by its capacity price, which was 73% above last October's after Long Island's capacity surplus halved. Long Island also had the widest Day-Ahead spread in the state, and outages on the Neptune cable added to its Real-Time volatility in mid-October.

New York City's reference price fell 12%, to $120/MW-day. Imports over the Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) added surplus to the city's capacity auction, and its capacity price fell 19%. Its Day-Ahead spread narrowed as well, lowering its energy arbitrage price.

Upstate and Hudson Valley reference prices held flat, rising 1% to 3%, to between $70/MW-day and $76/MW-day. Higher capacity payments offset thinner Day-Ahead spreads.

Key takeaways

• Long Island's reference price rose 45% year-over-year, to $106/MW-day. Its capacity price of $10.13/kW-month was 73% above last October, and its Day-Ahead spread rose 20%, to $155/MW-day.
• New York City's reference price fell 12% year-over-year, to $120/MW-day. Its capacity price of $12.60/kW-month was 19% below last October, and its Day-Ahead spread fell 8%.
• Upstate and Hudson Valley reference prices rose 1% to 3%. Capacity payments rose $4/MW-day, while energy arbitrage fell $2/MW-day to $3/MW-day.
• The Neptune cable's outage days made up 19% of October's hours but carried 43% of Long Island's Real-Time congestion.