​The New South Wales spot price hit $23,107/MWh on 12 October 2026 amid high temperatures, cloud cover and transmission constraints. Eleven intervals cleared above $9,000/MWh, the most in a day since 26 June 2025.

​The spike came as cloud cover cut solar output at the same time as cooling demand ramped in high temperatures. Gas and coal output was slow to respond, as pre-dispatch forecasts expected high prices to arrive later and run longer into the evening.

​Network congestion shaped the event and the revenue opportunity for batteries. Interstate outages limited imports into New South Wales and a key transmission constraint within the state divided asset earnings.

This article explains what drove the 12 October price event, how network constraints affected generators and batteries, and why pre-dispatch shaped the response.​

Executive summary

• Location split battery revenues. Batteries north of the constraint (excl. Waratah) earned $803k/MW/yr on 12 October, against $443k/MW/yr for the seven southern batteries.
• Southern batteries were only dispatched for 20% of the 694 MWh that they offered below the New South Wales price.
• Constraints caused by the Canberra-Capital line outage combined with import limits from Queensland and South Australia left New South Wales supply constrained.
• ​High temperatures drove demand of 8.2 GW at 2:30pm compared to 4.4 GW the previous day, while grid-scale solar output was down 68% to 0.8 GW.
• Pre-dispatch price forecasts expected the spike later and for longer, from 3pm to 6pm. New South Wales battery output peaked at 571 MW during the spike, 22% below the 728 MW evening peak.

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​Constraints set the conditions for the event and split battery revenues

A Canberra–Capital 330 kV line outage in central New South Wales tightened supply and divided the opportunity for batteries. BESS in the north of the state were able to freely dispatch into the high prices. Assets in the south saw their output limited across the remaining lines, with 80% of the 694 MWh offered below the price held back.