​MISO is really two markets, MISO North and MISO South, connected by a contracted transmission line. Both are racing to meet fast load growth, but approach generation buildout in opposite ways. The North is retiring coal and building renewables and storage, while the South is adding baseload thermal, most of it through MISO’s Expedited Resource Addition Study (ERAS).

Peak demand, 124 GW today, grows by 50 GW over the next 15 years. That is a step up from MISO's 2024 Long-term Load Forecast (LTLF) study, which assumed 1.6% annual peak-demand growth against the 2% now expected.

As load arrives, top-bottom 4-hour (TB4) spreads stay range-bound, dipping as new supply lands in the late 2020s before climbing back through the 2030s. Ancillary markets fill up fast as batteries scale, so prices fall sharply. Capacity markets is where most of the revenue sits. A wave of firm ERAS gas holds prices low through the late 2020s, despite a 2028 accreditation change cutting battery capacity credits, before prices rebound in the early 2030s as the buildout mix shifts toward lower-accredited generation. In MISO’s fast-changing market, capacity is increasingly where the value sits.

Key takeaways

• Peak demand grows 2% a year on average, 50 GW of additional load over the next 15 years, with 30 GW arriving by the early 2030s. Data centers drive 40% of the rise.
• Demand growth is highest in MISO North: northern zones grow energy demand 39% by 2040, against 26% in the South.
• Gas, solar and BESS are promptly deployed to meet this demand. The 2026-2031 buildout settles 27 GW of gas (mostly through ERAS queue), 28 GW of solar and 7 GW of BESS, while 8 GW of coal retires.
• Around-the-clock power prices peak at $66/MWh in 2032 (from $39/MWh in 2025), then ease back by 2040. TB4 spreads stay volatile, marking a horizon-low of $40k/MW-year in 2029 before climbing back to $65k by 2032 and holding through the 2030s.
• Battery revenue opportunity is shifting from ancillary services to capacity. The 2028 D-LoL rule cuts a four-hour battery's capacity credit from 95% to 55%, capping accredited revenue at $2.50/kW-mo by 2040.

Load growth ranks among the most bullish ISOs

By 2040, MISO's peak demand is 44% above its 2019 level. ERCOT grows faster, at 67%, and PJM sits at 41%. MISO isn't the quickest-growing ISO on a percentage basis, but it starts from a much larger base of 120 GW. Therefore, its demand growth in GW is among the largest in the country.

Large loads drive 60% of MISO's demand growth

Large loads drive most of the new demand, led by data centers. Their energy use is forecast to climb from 34 TWh in 2027 to 218 TWh by 2035, then grow more slowly at 1.5% a year.

That early surge alone adds 21 GW of near-baseload demand by 2035, 40% of the 50 GW peak rise. Electric vehicles are the other fast riser, climbing from 7 TWh to 50 TWh by 2040. Conventional manufacturing stays the single biggest segment, but it grows far more gently, from 232 TWh to 280 TWh.

Demand growth is 51% higher in MISO North

The demand growth isn't spread evenly. By 2040, the North (LRZ 1-7) has grown energy demand 39%, against 26% in the South (LRZ 8-10). Most of the incoming data center load lands in the northern and central zones, so their share of total MISO demand rises through the forecast.

LRZ 1 and 2 lead MISO peak-demand growth

By 2040, peak demand is up most in LRZ 2 (Wisconsin/Upper Michigan) and LRZ 1 (Minnesota/Dakotas), both up 50% versus 2027. LRZ 3 (Iowa) follows at 34% and LRZ 5 (Missouri) at 33%. LRZ 9 (Louisiana/Texas) is the biggest driver in the South, at +26%. Toggle the map by year to watch the picture build.

MISO is building gas, renewables and batteries

The supply response is a mix of thermal, renewables and storage. New additions are front-loaded. 2027 alone is forecast to add 4.4 GW of solar, 3.7 GW of wind, 3.4 GW of batteries and 2.9 GW of gas, set against 2.7 GW of coal retiring. As viable projects move through the queue, the 2026-2031 buildout comes to 27 GW of gas, 28 GW of solar and 7 GW of batteries.

MISO ERAS program fast-tracks natural gas projects

22 GW of that thermal build comes through MISO's ERAS. 80% of the gas additions already hold firm interconnection agreements and clear at a 100% pass rate.

By comparison, the standard queue has historically lost 73% of its projects to withdrawal. Firm dispatchable gas buildout reduces scarcity events in the forecast, capping how high energy spreads can go.

Two buildout tales: MISO North versus South

The capacity mix is where the two markets diverge most. The South builds gas on top of an already combined-cycle heavy fleet. Gas capacity climbs from 91% of regional peak today to over 125% by the late 2030s. In contrast, coal eases only from 18% to 11%.

The North meets new demand growth with renewables instead of thermal investment. Coal capacity falls from 40 GW (43% of peak) today to 31 GW (28% of peak) by 2030 and 13 GW (10% of peak) by 2040, a retirement of 27 GW of coal over the forecast. BESS capacity climbs from just 1 GW today to 14 GW (12% of peak) by 2030, then levels off at 19 GW (14% of peak) by 2040.