​Modo Energy forecasts 68 GW of new generation capacity in MISO through 2031. Starting from a 314 GW interconnection queue, the forecast applies withdrawal probability, commercial operation date estimation, and locational capacity limits to produce a realistic buildout schedule. Natural gas (27 GW) and solar (28 GW) lead at near parity. Expedited Resource Addition Study (ERAS) projects with firm interconnection agreements drive gas. The Definitive Planning Process (DPP) pipeline is heavily weighted towards solar.

Key takeaways

• MISO's 314 GW interconnection queue delivers 68 GW of new generation through 2031 after derating for withdrawal risk, timing, and locational limits. In addition,he result converges with MISO's Series 2A Futures projection.
• Natural gas (27 GW) and solar (28 GW) are near parity. Gas leads the ERAS pathway at 22 GW with firm interconnection agreements. Solar leads the DPP pathway at 26 GW but carries higher attrition risk.
• The forecast delivers 6.9 GW of BESS, with 4.0 GW from ERAS commitments and 2.9 GW from DPP projects that survive the queue. However, the capacity expansion model selects zero additional batteries at any price point.

How much of the MISO queue will actually get built?

MISO's DPP queue holds 285 GW of proposed generation across 1,434 active and completed projects. The ERAS program adds another 29 GW, mostly natural gas. Together, the two pathways contain 314 GW of proposed generation, roughly 1.5 times MISO's current installed capacity.

That figure is not a forecast. Instead, interconnection queues contain speculative entries, placeholder projects, and duplicative filings. MISO's own data shows 73% of interconnection requests historically withdrew before completion. Additionally, approximately 48 GW of active projects list commercial operation dates that have already passed.

Translating this queue into a credible forecast requires structured derating. This means removing projects likely to withdraw, estimating realistic completion timelines, and capping additions at levels consistent with MISO's resource planning.

How does the derating pipeline filter 314 GW down to 68 GW?

Modo Energy's queue derating pipeline applies three sequential filters.

Filter 1: Withdrawal probability (314 GW to 107 GW). Each DPP project receives a likelihood of reaching commercial operation. The model uses MISO's published withdrawal rates by study phase, a within-phase progress adjustment, and a technology-specific completion rate. ERAS projects (29 GW), however, pass through at 100% due to firm Generator Interconnection Agreements. After this filter, 107 GW remains.

Filter 2: Commercial operation date estimation. The model assigns estimated dates using empirical time-to-completion distributions by technology and study phase, replacing unreliable application in-service dates. Solar averages 1.5 years from study completion to operation. In addition, gas construction timelines average 0.5 years, the shortest of any technology.

Filter 3: Locational limits and build rate pacing (107 GW to 68 GW). Cumulative capacity limits by Local Resource Zone, calibrated to MISO's F2 planned resources, cut 39 GW. Annual build rate constraints then pace construction to 1.5 times each zone's historical maximum buildout. ERAS projects bypass cumulative limits but are still subject to annual pacing.

What gets built, by technology, and from which queue?

Natural gas and solar account for 80% of the buildout in a closer split than the raw queue would suggest.

Natural gas: ERAS projects (22 GW) with firm interconnection agreements drive most of the gas buildout, bypassing the DPP queue. These are mainly combustion turbines and combined cycles in MISO South. For battery developers, this ERAS gas buildout sets the dispatchable baseline that competes with BESS projects.

Solar: Solar leads the DPP pathway at 26 GW but carries higher attrition risk than ERAS gas. Projects concentrate in Michigan (LRZ 7), MISO South (LRZ 9), and Missouri (LRZ 5). DPP solar deepens the midday price trough, widening the intraday spreads. These spreads drive storage revenue alongside ancillary services and capacity payments.

Wind: Wind additions are modest relative to the queue. Onshore wind faces transmission constraints in the highest-resource zones and competes with solar for interconnection capacity. The projection instead reflects projects already in advanced study phases.

BESS: 6.9 GW. The forecast delivers 6.9 GW of BESS, with 4.0 GW from ERAS commitments (15 projects) and 2.9 GW from DPP survivors (108 projects). ERAS BESS concentrates in Indiana (1.5 GW) and Minnesota (1.2 GW). Michigan accounts for the largest single zone at 3.1 GW, mostly DPP. Despite this, the capacity expansion model selects zero additional batteries at any price point in any zone.

Where does the buildout land across MISO?

​The 68 GW buildout is not evenly distributed. In particular, three geographic patterns emerge from the derating results.

Solar and storage concentrate where state targets are strongest. Michigan (12.5 GW) combines state clean energy targets, a large renewable pipeline, and 3.1 GW of BESS development. Missouri (4 GW) is predominantly solar at 2.9 GW. Iowa (6 GW) relies on wind, though new additions face curtailment risk as penetration grows.

Indiana faces the tightest capacity margin as new builds do not keep pace with demand. Indiana has MISO's largest operational BESS fleet at 337 MW. They also continue to attract storage and gas development. But, peak load approaches installed capacity plus queue builds through 2031. As a result, this is the zone where flexible resources carry the most near-term value through arbitrage potential.

ERAS gas anchors MISO South and the Upper Midwest. Louisiana and Texas (14 GW) receive the largest allocation. ERAS gas projects with firm agreements serve Gulf Coast reliability needs there. Similarly, Wisconsin (7 GW) draws from both ERAS and DPP pipelines, with gas at 3.9 GW. Together, these zones show where reliability gas is most concentrated.

What is retiring in MISO?

Meanwhile, MISO loses approximately 10 GW of operating capacity through 2031, with coal accounting for 8 GW. Retirements concentrate in 2028 (3.9 GW, mostly coal) and 2027 (1.9 GW), creating near-term gaps that new builds must fill.

The geographic impact, however, is uneven. Michigan (LRZ 7) loses the most capacity, nearly all coal. MISO South (LRZ 9) also loses significant capacity, though queue builds already oversupply the zone. Overall, these retirements are one reason the 68 GW of queue builds is necessary. Without them, the existing fleet would cover near-term adequacy through the early 2030s. This balance may shift as MISO updates its load growth projections. In particular, data center and manufacturing demand are accelerating in MISO Central (see "Data centers and manufacturing define MISO's 2046 load forecast").

BESS mandates in MISO

Five MISO states have BESS procurement targets totaling approximately 8 GW: Illinois (3 GW), Michigan (2.5 GW), Minnesota (1.2 GW), Missouri (1 GW), and Indiana (337 MW). However, most BESS projects backing these mandates are early-phase DPP entries. They sit behind solar and gas projects with firm interconnection agreements. In Illinois, for example, the queue delivers zero BESS through 2031 because advanced-phase projects fill the zone first.

As a result, the 6.9 GW of BESS in this forecast is driven by ERAS commitments and DPP survivors, not mandate enforcement. Mandates may accelerate deployment if states prioritize storage in future interconnection cycles, but that is not reflected in the current queue.

What should developers take from this forecast?

The queue overstates buildable capacity by roughly 4.6 times. The 314 GW headline is a measure of developer interest, not construction-ready pipeline. Yet after derating, gas and solar reach near parity through different pathways: ERAS for gas, DPP for solar. BESS deployment tracks ERAS commitments and queue position, not state procurement targets.

How much of the 68 GW materializes depends on whether ERAS gas projects close on schedule and whether DPP solar can sustain historically unprecedented build rates.

Beyond 2031 to 2050

This forecast covers the derated queue through 2031. Approximately 107 GW of queue capacity survives the withdrawal filter but cannot be placed within locational limits and annual pacing. This unplaced capacity forms the candidate set for capacity expansion modeling beyond 2031.