​ERCOT's 2027 peak demand has fallen 8 GW since the Q4 2025 Market Outlook. The new batch study process raises the qualification bar for large-load interconnection, pushing anticipated data center growth further out in the timeline. At the same time, stronger solar and storage additions through 2026 and 2027, with 41.5 GW expected online in those two years, keep supply ahead of demand and compress near-term project returns.

That surplus is short-lived. As development slows and demand growth persists, the balance tightens. Around-the-clock (ATC) wholesale power prices peak near $128/MWh in 2033 and TB2 spreads reach $136k/MW-year, before settling to $57k by the late 2040s.

This article covers Modo Energy's ERCOT fundamental market outlook through 2049, as of the Q1 2026 release.

Executive Summary

• Peak demand reaches 129 GW by 2040, with large loads accounting for 25 GW of that growth. Installed capacity grows nearly 80% by 2040 and more than doubles by 2049 as solar and batteries dominate new builds.
• Solar grows from 16% to 27% of generation by 2035, while coal drops below 10%. Gas retains roughly 38% as it fills evenings and overnight. Batteries expand into overnight dispatch as duration and installed capacity grow, flattening the daily price shape.