In March, Modo Energy showed how the Cheaper Home Batteries Program had accelerated home battery deployment and why home batteries had become an increasingly important consideration for grid-scale BESS.

Four months later, the program's first year is complete. The scheme can be analysed in three parts: the rapid buildout after launch, the rush to install systems before the 1 May rebate changes, and the market response since.

Home batteries reshape residential demand profiles rather than bidding into the market. This is still enough to contribute to spread compression, alongside the cannibalisation from grid-scale battery deployment and other demand shifting.

Executive summary

• Home battery power capacity has grown from 1.4 GW to 7.8 GW over the year, a fivefold increase. This has overtaken grid-scale battery power capacity of 7.7 GW.
• The subsidy taper has slowed home battery adoption. Installations surged ahead of the May change, then dropped. Deployment still holds four times the pre-subsidy rate.
• Home batteries are already changing wholesale price formation, reducing the daily price spreads that support grid-scale battery arbitrage.
• Modo forecasts the home battery capacity will double again by 2030, reaching 15.8 GW and 32.9 GWh.

Home battery power capacity grew more than fivefold in the subsidy's first year

As of 30 June 2026, the NEM's registered small-scale battery fleet had reached 512,000 installations, up from 120,000 a year earlier. Together with larger average system sizes, small-scale battery power capacity increased from 1.4 GW to 7.8 GW over the same period.