There are 14 GW of battery energy storage projects in the latest update to our GB battery pipeline planned to begin commercial operation in Great Britain by the end of 2027. This would take total operating capacity to 18 GW from 4 GW today.
However, our latest projections suggest just 11.5 GW of this will actually begin commercial operation by this point. This would be enough for total operational battery capacity to be 15 GW by the end of 2027.
The pipeline contains battery projects in Great Britain holding long-term contracts such as Capacity Market agreements and Pathfinder contracts. It extends to 2027. Each project has a specific estimated buildout date based on press releases, company websites, contract start dates, or direct confirmation from the companies responsible for the project. This is also supported by data in the Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD) and Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) register.
The projection is Modo Energy’s expectation of how much capacity will actually come online. This is based on historic buildout trends and consideration of how this could change in the future.
Taking into account delays in pipeline capacity coming online, we project total operation capacity at the end of 2024 to be 5.1 GW. This is 24% below the 6.7 GW from the pipeline. By the end of 2027, this figure reaches 15.4 GW, 14% below the pipeline of 17.9 GW.
Delays put short-term projections behind the FES
ESO’s 2023 Future Energy Scenarios (FES) “represent a range of different, credible ways to decarbonize our energy system as we strive towards the 2050 target”. These scenarios include specific values for battery energy storage in Great Britain each year until 2050.
While the projected buildout would lead total capacity in Great Britain to exceed these scenarios, it would take up to three years for the buildout that is projected to catch up to the FES.
The current capacity and continued projection are set to exceed only the Falling Short scenario. Falling behind the remaining scenarios and the five-year forecast could pose an issue to system needs between now and 2027. FES 2024 is due to be published on June 24th, 2024.
Capacity projected to be online by the end of 2024 has reduced by 1.5 GW since Q3 2023
At the end of Q3 2023, following the high buildout rates from the previous quarters, total capacity was projected to be 6.6 GW by the end of 2024. 2023 was a record-breaking year for new battery capacity becoming commercially operational. 415 MW came online each quarter on average. However, Q1 2024 saw just 184 MW of newly operational capacity.