Pricing
20 Sep 2022
Alex Done

FFR: October 2022 monthly auction results analysis

National Grid Electricity System Operator (NG ESO) has published the results of their latest monthly FFR tender, for delivery across October. In this article, we’ll take a look at the following:

  • A summary of accepted volumes (and how they stack up against procurement targets);
  • The prices secured in the tender; and
  • And a look at the most lucrative bids.

FFR Volumes

Figure 1 (below) shows the accepted and rejected dynamic FFR volumes in addition to procurement targets for September and October delivery.

Figure 1 - Accepted, rejected and targeted monthly dynamic FFR volumes for tender rounds 152 (September delivery) and 153 (October delivery). Rejected volumes exclude bids rejected under rejection code 4 (i.e. bids where multiple tenders were received for the same unit).
  • Procurement levels for October remained constant relative to September, with an average procurement of 331 MW across the day (+2% change on September).
  • On average, the ESO procured ~15 MW more than its requirement, per EFA block, with no under-procurement in any blocks.
  • Continuing the trend from last month, rejected volumes increased again since the previous tender round, growing 5% to ~690 MW. This is likely driven by a falling requirement in Dynamic Containment as we move out of the summer months, with providers looking to secure monthly contracts and avoid saturated day-ahead response markets.

FFR Prices

Figure 2 (below) shows the range of accepted bid prices and the volume-weighted average accepted bid price, for September - October.

Figure 2 - Average bid price per EFA block, reference price (volume-weighted average accepted bid price across the day) and price range for dynamic FFR, in 152 (September delivery) and 153 (October delivery).
  • Despite the continuing trend of oversupply in FFR and no increases to volume requirements, October prices remained steady on last month with an average price of £21.54/MW/h (-1% on September).
  • EFAs 5-6 cleared at ~1.7x the value of EFAs 1-2, with high-value acceptances across the overnight blocks.
  • October pricing represents the second highest average price in FFR over the last two years, with prices up 98% on the same time last year (see figure 3 below).
Figure 3 - Avg. accepted bid price and procured volume history in dynamic FFR from January 2020 - October 2022.

Top bids

Table 1 (below) shows the highest accepted FFR bids in each EFA block for October delivery.

Table 1 - Highest accepted dynamic FFR bid price (£/MW/h) per EFA block for October delivery. Note this considers only bids made for weekdays (excl. weekends/bank holidays).
  • Social Energy (again) secured the highest-priced contract for an individual EFA block - a 1 MW bid, accepted across EFA blocks 5 and 6 at a price of £37.27/MW/h.
  • Across EFA blocks 1-4, Gresham House-owned and Arenko-operated site Nevendon secured the highest value contract, at a price of £25.67 for 7 MW.

Things to watch

October saw FFR prices stay at their lofty heights, with the second highest average price observed in FFR in the last 2 years. Accepted volumes remained constant on last month with rejections rising higher still - most likely caused by falling DC requirements and a desire to offset the risk of lower prices in a saturated day-ahead response market.

As we move into the shoulder months with a tough winter ahead, wholesale market opportunity is set to increase dramatically, which could force prices higher still by the end of the year.

With significant changes to the GB frequency response markets and December baseload power trading above £500/MWh, this winter is set to be a challenging but lucrative time for BESS. To stay up to date with the market changes, be sure to keep an eye on Phase by Modo, check in with the Modo Leaderboard to see who comes out on top and get in touch to discuss our brand new forecasting product Signal to see our view on this winter and beyond!