​Modo Energy's April 2026 release is out. The forecast cuts German solar capture rates and capture prices by around 10%. Lower solar CapEx assumptions and reduced BESS buildout drive the change, while outright wholesale prices have hardly moved. A new low scenario takes solar capture prices a further 13% lower in the longer term.

Key takeaways

• Solar capture rates and capture prices fall by about 10%, driven by lower CapEx assumptions and lower BESS buildout.
• Solar buildout shifts to the back end of the forecast, with near-term assumptions revised down.
• BESS buildout falls to 15.4 GW in 2030 (from 18.7 GW) and 57.4 GW in 2050 (from 63.7 GW).
• Wholesale power prices stay within 1% of the January release on the long-term average, as fuel-switching to coal offsets higher gas prices.
• A new low scenario reduces solar capture prices by 13% in the longer term, on lower gas and carbon price assumptions.

Solar capture rates and prices fall by 10%

Both solar capture rates and capture prices fall by about 10% in the April release. Three factors drive the change: lower CapEx, lower BESS buildout, and slightly lower wholesale power prices.

Lower CapEx, based on new inputs from the IRENA 2024 dataset, is the main driver. In Modo Energy's least-cost capacity expansion modelling, lower CapEx means solar can still be built when capture prices fall. As a result, more cannibalisation can occur before buildout slows and the market self-corrects.

Solar buildout shifts to the back of the forecast

The April release pushes more solar buildout into the late 2030s and 2040s. Near-term buildout is revised down slightly on and lower BESS buildout. Uncertainty over future solar regulations in the EEG and the grid package supports the lower near-term trajectory.