​ERCOT batteries earned an average of $3.94/kW-month in January 2026. This is the highest revenue month since May 2025, driven primarily by Winter Storm Fern. State-of-Charge management was crucial for batteries to capitalize on multiple days of high volatility. The top 10% of assets earned $5.91/kW-month.

March 2026 presents a different revenue environment. Day-Ahead price spreads were 31% below March 2025, reflecting a flatter intraday price shape. Higher renewables output weighed on midday prices, while stronger battery discharge and a less stressed evening ramp limited peak prices. This ultimately reduced the energy arbitrage opportunity for batteries.

​Key takeaways

• January 2026 revenues reached $3.94/kW-month, up 139% year-over-year and the highest in eight months. Revenues earned on January 26 made up 45% of monthly revenues for batteries.
• March 2026 revenues are expected to fall below last year. DA price spreads are down 31% year-over-year, with a larger BESS fleet charging raising midday prices, and higher discharge capping evening peaks. RT spreads are broadly flat.
• Day-Ahead Ancillary Service markets have generally outperformed Real-Time since RTC+B launched in December 2025. But March 23 showed how quickly that basis can reverse: a single RT spike erased much of the month’s accumulated DA premium. Day-Ahead Non-Spin ended the month with a cumulative basis of -$599/MW. Without the March 23 spike, DA Non-Spin would have had a net basis of $449/MW over RT.
• Scarcity-event exposure remains central to ERCOT battery economics. A handful of high-stress intervals can still disproportionately drive annual returns, as January’s performance dispersion across optimizers shows. The top 25% of optimizers achieved at least 76% of their Top-Bottom spread opportunities, while the bottom quartile only earned 27%.

​March 2026: ERCOT batteries expected to earn $1.52/kW-month