According to planned buildout data, battery energy storage capacity in ERCOT will hit 10-12 GW by the end of 2024. However, recent development timelines suggest this is highly optimistic. So, how much capacity is actually likely to come online this year?
As of January 2024, there’s 3.3 GW of battery capacity in ERCOT’s Day-Ahead and Real-Time markets. By the end of the year, this is likely to double. There will be around 7 GW of commercially operational capacity in ERCOT.
In 2023, battery energy storage projects faced average delays of 6-7 months
Projects in ERCOT’s Resource Adequacy databases often face delays to their planned start dates. After signing an interconnection agreement, it typically takes a project 2-2.5 years to begin commercial operations (i.e. to enter ERCOT’s Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets).
For projects that were due to begin commercial operations in 2023, start dates were delayed by 6.5 months (on average).
ERCOT’s Resource Adequacy reports aren’t the only place to track planned battery energy storage projects. There’s also the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) 860 report. If we look at projects that were due online in 2023 (according to the January 2023 report):
- All battery projects that were at least 50% complete at that time (and that had a planned start date between January and December 2023) ended up commercially operational by the end of the year.
- Half of the projects that had begun construction but were under 50% complete became commercially operational by the end of 2023.
- Zero projects that had yet to begin construction ended up reaching commercial operations by the end of the year.
We have applied these success rates (from both datasets) to battery energy storage projects planning to start commercial operations in 2024. This gives us more realistic projections of how much capacity will be commercially operational this year.
By the end of 2024, there will be around 7 GW of commercially operational battery capacity in ERCOT
- According to ERCOT’s Resource Adequacy data, 12 GW of synchronized battery energy storage capacity will be online by the end of 2024. (Not all of this will be actively participating in ERCOT’s Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets by this time. There is typically a few months lag between synchronization and commercial operations.)
- According to the first Energy Information Administration’s 860 report of 2024, nearly 10 GW of commercially operational battery capacity in ERCOT is due online by the end of the year.
However, it’s likely that the total capacity of commercially operational battery capacity will be somewhere between 6 and 7 GW. This is based on actual project timelines and delays over the past two years, as outlined above.
Despite these “delays”, battery buildout in ERCOT is still happening at its quickest rate ever
Commercially operational storage capacity should roughly double in ERCOT in 2024. This is still a radical change for the power system. 7 GW of commercially operating batteries would provide a massive injection of flexibility. This is more than 8% of the all-time peak load in ERCOT, and about 10% of the all-time peak net load.
Most projects with signed interconnection agreements make it online - though often at a slower pace than the interconnection queue states. Even though many projects may not hit their planned start dates, buildout of battery energy storage is still happening at a faster rate than ever before.