​Spanish photovoltaics have gone from capturing €61/MWh in spring 2023 to just €16.8/MWh in 2025. Now, spring 2026 presents a new challenge for solar assets.

Spain is adding solar capacity faster than demand is growing. The result: negative midday prices and many renewable PPAs under pressure.

Spring 2026, unless there’s unusual weather, will continue the pattern of recent years. Without storage or flexibility, solar PV will keep selling at rock-bottom prices during its highest production hours.

This analysis explores:

• How the capture rate dropped from 83% to 54% between 2023 and 2025.
• How spring 2025 set new records for solar curtailment.
• What to expect in spring 2026.

PV expansion means record production every spring

Photovoltaic output has increased by 43% over the past two springs. However, demand hasn’t kept pace with this growth. Not only has it not increased in absolute terms, but most solar production is concentrated in just a few hours of the day.

This mismatch between solar supply and demand has led to a continuous drop in the price captured by PV.

In spring 2023, Spanish PV plants captured €72/MWh. The capture rate was 83%. Cannibalization existed, but it was moderate.