Data centers are driving most of PJM's near-term load growth. Modo Energy forecasts data centers will add 19.2 GW of demand at the system peak in 2030. This figure applies three haircuts to the tracked pipeline: each campus phase needs at least a 50% build likelihood to count, total U.S. builds are capped, and qualifying campuses count only the share of their capacity drawn at the system peak.

As of November 10, Modo Energy tracks 231 GW of operating and planned data centers across 681 developments. Planned and under-construction projects account for 92% of that capacity, as the majority have yet to start operating.

Key takeaways

• Modo Energy forecasts data centers will add 19.2 GW of demand at the system peak by 2030.
• Most tracked capacity has yet to start operating. Planning and construction account for 92% of the 231 GW pipeline, and Modo Energy expects developers to build 16% of capacity not yet operating.
• Independent developers and neoclouds account for most of the development pipeline. Hyperscalers operate 48% of existing capacity but comprise only 15% of under-construction or proposed capacity.
• Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio hold most future capacity, and campuses in Pennsylvania and Ohio are larger on average than Virginia's. With larger campuses a delay in one project can defer a larger share of a state's expected growth.
• The incoming demand will add to PJM's already-short capacity market. The 2028/29 auction cleared at the $325/MW-day cap, and the market monitor attributed $6.3B in auction costs to data centers.

Data centers will add 19.2 GW of peak demand by 2030

Modo Energy forecasts slower demand growth after 2030 because projects under construction and proposals with more evidence of progress have added most of their load by then. Later campus phases continue adding demand into the 2030s.