​Dutch aFRR (automatic frequency restoration reserve) sends two opposite price signals. The capacity market is saturated: availability that paid €105/MW/h in 2022 pays €27/MW/h in 2026, after four straight years of falls. The energy market is here to stay: activated volumes set a record in 2025, and providers offer more every year.

For batteries, the aFRR energy market offers a spread that no other Dutch market does. On summer days, solar sets the day-ahead price near zero while gas still sets the upward aFRR price. At 14:00 on the summer 2026 average, that is €13/MWh against €104/MWh: a €91/MWh spread inside a single hour, in the same hours a battery charges.

Key takeaways

• At summer midday, solar sets a day-ahead price near zero while gas still sets the upward aFRR price. Only aFRR enables that spread in the same hour as when the battery charges on solar-cleared day-ahead prices.
• The energy side has never been deeper or better connected. Providers now offer TenneT 620 MW of upward and 1,280 MW of downward activation energy. In 2025, the first full year on the PICASSO platform, output reached a record 942 GWh.
• Capacity prices kept falling after the gas crisis: 4-hour blocks made it easier for batteries and renewables to enter, while Dynamic Dimensioning cut the capacity that TenneT procures.

How does one midday hour pay a battery three times?

Solar output peaks in summer, taking the Dutch day-ahead price down with it. Midday prices fall to a floor, and gas drops out of the merit order (the pattern behind the wide Dutch day-ahead spreads covered in Modo's analysis of Dutch buildout, spreads and grid charges).

As the generation mix is almost entirely renewable and running at maximum output, upward flexibility is limited. A gas-fired plant, however, can still provide this flexibility. As a result, gas continues to set the upward aFRR energy price even after it has left the day-ahead market.