Dutch aFRR capacity prices keep falling. The energy side is where batteries earn.
Dutch aFRR capacity prices keep falling. The energy side is where batteries earn.
Dutch aFRR (automatic frequency restoration reserve) sends two opposite price signals. The capacity market is saturated: availability that paid €105/MW/h in 2022 pays €27/MW/h in 2026, after four straight years of falls. The energy market is here to stay: activated volumes set a record in 2025, and providers offer more every year.
For batteries, the aFRR energy market offers a spread that no other Dutch market does. On summer days, solar sets the day-ahead price near zero while gas still sets the upward aFRR energy price. At 14:00 on the summer 2026 average, that is paying generators €13/MWh against €104/MWh: a €91/MWh difference.
Key takeaways
- aFRR capacity prices have bottomed out. Supply into the auction continues to rise, while TenneT procures less. The saturation runs both ways.
- The aFRR energy market is growing. A much larger domestic market, coupled with Europe, drove a record 942 GWh of activation in 2025. A deeper aFRR merit order gives a battery more options to bid, so it can position for both state of charge and price.
- aFRR energy adds income on top of the day-ahead spread and requires fewer cycles to capture.
How much are European batteries earning from aFRR and ancillaries?
Modo Energy's Benchmarks measure realised BESS revenue across European markets including Great Britain, Germany, Spain, Italy and Poland, attributing it by service and strategy, ancillary income included.
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